I. Geopolitical level: Since the day the U.S.-Iran negotiations began, I said that this factor would have diminishing influence on market movements. To be honest, I didn’t expect the talks to progress so quickly and with so little backtracking—this is now a positive. But by the same logic: if its negative impact is weak, its positive impact is also weakening. As this factor’s weight in future market dynamics continues to decline, it can be disregarded; II. Policy: I’ve fallen into an information bubble. Over the past few days, my X “For You” feed has been flooded with posts about the “CLARITY ACT”—all English-language fake news (old news with new headlines). Yet, I haven’t seen any markup publicly disclosed. With 12 days left in April, as the window narrows, if no progress is visible within this period, sentiment in the crypto space (including crypto-related stocks) could experience a sharp reversal; III. Liquidity: Key events (news, policies, etc.) shouldn’t be used to subjectively guess market direction—they provide us with a clearer lens to observe how assets react to event-driven stimuli. For instance, recent liquidity tightening: asset performance before the tightening was actually strong. Moreover, this liquidity tightening window is narrow (tightening begins April 15, easing starts after month-end); IV. U.S. equities: We can view this as a new uptrend. Although indices appear alarming, internal rotation among sectors remains orderly and healthy (aside from this 17-day consecutive rally); V. Crypto: Currently, this remains only a rebound. The situation is as follows: 1. BTC continues rising toward structural resistance, ratio pressure, moving average pressure, etc. (Figure 1); 2. The view that “altcoins are garbage and this is a dead cat bounce” (short-term profit opportunity, long-term bearish) remains unchanged. Following this logic, as more low-cap altcoins join the dead cat bounce, the market grows increasingly risky—especially with no visible接力 from large-cap coins; 3. Simple logic: U.S. equities are in a new uptrend (a rebound after fundamental mispricing); BTC and ETH are following U.S. equity sentiment; small-cap garbage altcoins are amplifying that sentiment; 4. My next key short-term trigger point is the progress of the “CLARITY ACT.” If concrete positive news emerges soon, this rally could shift from a sentiment-driven dead cat bounce to a fundamentally supported uptrend. If negative news arrives instead, prepare for a brutal downside reversal after extreme euphoria. Forget long-term forecasts—too many variables: even if the bill fails, what if liquidity returns in May? What if Fed policy shifts? What new surprises emerge? Stick to price action. 5. Long-term technical analysis in this post: https://t.co/p9kQnxmqmz Theoretically, the higher it rises, the better. VI. Finally, on trading: 1. In crypto, there may still be sentiment spikes—but I believe we’ve reached the stage where you’ve already missed the boat (how many levels higher than teachers telling you to short at $70k, $72k, $74k, $76k?). I’m holding only one coin right now; if it doesn’t move next week, I’m selling it too—giving it one more week (a small altcoin, no need to name it); 2. Want to short crypto but it’s too wild? Fine—keep sending this idiot白银 to $50 (Figure 2); 3. In U.S. equities: I reduced my position below $90 after buying when $CRCL was above $100. After FOMO, getting trapped, micro-profit-taking, and finally gaining rational perspective on this stock—the journey was nerve-wracking but safe. I reallocated part of my position to $HOOD; HOOD has a gap near $98 (Figure 3), and I believe the first leg will likely reach that level; 4. After receiving feedback from actions 1, 2, and 3, I’ll formulate my next trading plan. ------If my tweets have helped you, please turn on the bell and engage. Thank you------