Clarity Act Hinges on Weekend Ethics Deal as Senate Recess Looms — Odds Remain Below 50%
The fate of the CLARITY Act now hangs on a weekend ethics negotiation between the White House and Senate negotiators. A bipartisan counter-proposal would give state attorneys general enforcement power if the DOJ fails to act against federal officials who violate the ethics provisions. The bill's future could be decided by the White House's response to this proposal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to vote immediately, accusing Democrats of delaying for political reasons. Polymarket currently prices the probability of passage in 2026 at approximately 30%. Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins warned that if the Act stalls, the SEC will draft its own crypto market rules.
Risk reminder: If the bill fails before the August recess, regulatory uncertainty could persist well into 2027.
