• Deepening their own advantages, refusing blind trend-following and overreach: Seedance did not attempt to challenge AlphaFold's position in the field of biological protein folding. Instead, relying on the ecological resources of its backer, the video content giant ByteDance, it pushed the "video generation" vertical to the extreme, even causing panic in Hollywood.
• Not building "pseudo-infrastructure," focusing on niche scenarios: Consumer-grade AI applications like Manus and Character AI did not obsess over being "OpenAI killers" or attempt to "reconstruct underlying computing networks." They astutely captured long-tail demands in niche scenarios, building customized services and applications based on existing large model capabilities. This seemingly "not grand/low-level enough" route has brought them healthy, impressive real revenue and user retention, as well as considerable primary market valuations.

• Distinguish between "Technical Daydreaming" and "True Value Reconstruction": The crypto industry certainly possesses the capability to reconstruct traditional foundations. Stablecoins essentially challenging and participating in the reconstruction of the SWIFT cross-border payment system is the best proof, as it practically solves the real pain points of high friction, low efficiency, and high thresholds in traditional finance. However, we still need to be wary of the technical delusion of "decentralization for the sake of decentralization." In the mature business world, infrastructure like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Cloudflare are already extremely efficient. Unless you truly have an absolutely crushing technical barrier (e.g., a technological explosion) in the underlying architecture, true disruption comes from filling rigid demand gaps or providing a "10x better" user experience, rather than tearing down highly efficient existing systems without any commercial basis.

• Serve even one "Real, Small Demand" well: Abandon the self-indulgent carnival of pseudo-demands. Get down to earth and solve the pain points of a small circle, focus on real applications that can run actual businesses (such as empowering AI agent payments, optimizing cross-border settlements, etc.), and refocus on the long-unmentioned "Real Protocol Revenue" (Real Yield). This is far more pragmatic than churning out another 10,000-word whitepaper attempting to "disrupt OpenAI with a decentralized network." Only by doing so is it more likely to stand out in this round of capital reshuffling and gain true market recognition.

Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on markets; risk assets struggle while safe havens rally

Data Source: TradingView

 

Meanwhile, sentiment in the crypto market remained fragile. Bitcoin spent last week oscillating between $65k–$70k, and as risk appetite softened again from the weekend into Monday’s Asia session, BTC briefly dipped below $65,000 (around $64,700). On the industry side, miners’ “cash-flow first” stance is increasingly notable. Bitdeer (BTDR) disclosed that as of 2/20 its corporate BTC holdings (excluding customer deposits) had fallen to zero, and that it sold all 189.8 BTC mined during the week while reducing reserves by 943.1 BTC on a net basis. With BTC off its year-to-date highs and mining profitability under pressure, Bitdeer has also been advancing fundraising and AI/HPC expansion plans. The combination of “aggressive coin sales + shifting capex toward AI” has sparked visible debate among miners, public-market investors, and the broader crypto community over its balance-sheet strategy.

 

Data Source: SoSoValue

 

ETF flows remain a weak spot. U.S. spot BTC ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of net outflows, suggesting institutional activity is still characterized more by tactical de-risking than sustained accumulation. As of last week, total spot BTC ETF net assets were roughly $85.31B. Ethereum is in a similar “weak flows—weak price” feedback loop: based on SoSoValue’s figures, as of 2/20 (ET), spot ETH ETF net assets stood at about $11.141B, with flows remaining choppy.

 

Data Source: DeFillama

 

On-chain liquidity has been relatively steady. Overall stablecoin market capitalization has continued to edge higher through February, and supply in regulated stablecoins such as USDC has shown marginal improvement. This looks consistent with a “risk-off parking trade,” where some capital stays on-chain in stablecoins while waiting to redeploy. The key question from here is whether these stablecoins continue to sit within on-chain venues (DEX/DeFi/on-chain payments) or rotate back to exchanges—either to translate into more direct buying power or to signal rising redemption pressure.

 

Data Source: CME FedWatch Tool

 

Rate expectations have not fully shifted away from the baseline view of two cuts before year-end, but the market has clearly pushed out the timing of the first cut. With growth data cooling while inflation prints remain relatively sticky, probabilities for earlier windows (e.g., June) have eased, and pricing increasingly points to July as the first realistic “decision point” to watch.

 

Key Events to Watch This Week:

Looking ahead, macro markets will face another “Trump moment,” while the AI complex is likely to re-anchor around NVIDIA earnings. Geopolitics could also reintroduce volatility around key dates: the third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks is scheduled in Geneva this week, and February 24 also marks one of the symbolic milestones around the Russia–Ukraine conflict (its fourth anniversary).

 

• Feb 24: Trump delivers the State of the Union address; the White House’s temporary import surcharge (10%, 150 days) is scheduled to take effect (00:01 ET).
• Feb 24: Apple holds its 2026 annual shareholders meeting; markets continue to track its AI strategy and on-device execution pace.
• Feb 25 (after market close, ET): NVIDIA FY26 Q4 earnings and conference call—likely to influence risk appetite across the AI supply chain again.
• Feb 26: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (January preliminary).
• Feb 27: U.S. PPI (January).

 

Primary Market Financing Observation:

 

Primary funding remained subdued last week, but structurally it felt more like “headline deals without broad-based inflows.” Deal count was not particularly low, yet most of the weekly total was driven by a small number of large rounds. At the same time, overall sentiment stayed cautious, and capital continued to gravitate toward projects with clearer growth levers, compliance pathways, or more deterministic business models—an increasingly visible “more selective, more concentrated” pattern in broader industry funding (notably in AI application deployment, fintech/compliance, and RWA-related infrastructure).

 

Data Source: CryptoRank

 

Under CryptoRank’s dataset, disclosed fundraising totaled $112.2M across 16 rounds for the week. The largest deal—Novig’s $75M—accounted for roughly 67% of the weekly amount. In other words, excluding the top transaction, remaining rounds were generally small, and the market’s “distributed narratives” did not translate into a meaningful improvement in funding conditions; weekly totals were largely supported by a handful of outsized checks.

 

Novig: In a market where Kalshi already holds an advantage in sports, Novig targets user migration via “zero retail fees + institutional monetization”

 

Novig raised a $75M Series B (led by Pantera) at an estimated ~$500M valuation. Importantly, Novig is not “discovering a new category.” Instead, it is entering a mature competitive landscape in which Kalshi already commands scale in sports-related contracts and holds CFTC DCM status (Kalshi received DCM designation in 2020). Novig’s bet is that stronger retail-facing product design and a more aggressive pricing proposition can unlock migration at the margin.

 

The most meaningful differentiation is retail experience and fee structure. Kalshi operates like a conventional exchange and charges trading fees (with a published fee schedule). Novig positions itself as a P2P order-book platform for sports traders, emphasizing commission-free retail trading / no traditional sportsbook “vig,” while monetizing more through fees charged to institutional participants. This “shift the cost burden from retail to the institutional side” is its most direct, easily perceived point of differentiation versus Kalshi. Novig’s branding and product language are also more explicitly “sports-native”—closer to rebuilding a sportsbook experience with exchange-style pricing rather than treating sports as just one category within a broader event-contract marketplace.

 

Risks are equally concentrated. First, DCM status is not a universal shield—even as a DCM, Kalshi has faced strong pushback at the state level (e.g., Nevada’s lawsuit seeking to stop sports-related contracts for state residents), implying Novig could encounter similar friction even if it progresses toward federal compliance. Second, Novig is still in a transition phase from a sweepstakes-style dual-currency framework toward a clearer regulatory identity; stability in compliance, payments, and risk controls will directly affect expansion speed. Third, sports trading ultimately becomes a liquidity and pricing game. With Kalshi’s head start and scale advantage, Novig will need verifiable depth and retention metrics to prove that “zero retail fees” can generate a durable liquidity flywheel; otherwise, rising acquisition costs and adverse retail experience against sophisticated counterparties could become binding constraints.

 

About KuCoin Ventures

KuCoin Ventures, is the leading investment arm of KuCoin Exchange, which is a leading global crypto platform built on trust, serving over 40 million users across 200+ countries and regions. Aiming to invest in the most disruptive crypto and blockchain projects of the Web 3.0 era, KuCoin Ventures supports crypto and Web 3.0 builders both financially and strategically with deep insights and global resources.
As a community-friendly and research-driven investor, KuCoin Ventures works closely with portfolio projects throughout the entire life cycle, with a focus on Web3.0 infrastructures, AI, Consumer App, DeFi and PayFi.

 

Disclaimer This general market information, possibly from third-party, commercial, or sponsored sources, is not financial or investment advice, an offer, solicitation, or guarantee. We disclaim liability for its accuracy, completeness, reliability, and any resulting losses. Investments/trading are risky; past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Users should research, judge prudently, and take full responsibility.