Executive Summary: Macro Sentiment Prevails, Market Structure Remains Weak
The crypto market last week exhibited a complex tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, heavily dictated by the macro environment. Amidst the bearish impact of anticipated interest rate hikes in Japan and the bullish confluence of improved Fed liquidity and Vanguard's expected Bitcoin ETF launch, prices experienced sharp volatility before ultimately closing with a marginal gain of 0.03%, forming a "Doji" candlestick on the weekly chart. On the spot side, US Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for the second consecutive week, further weakening buying support. Exchange Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) turned comprehensively negative, indicating active selling pressure dominated the market. Volatility spiked in the derivatives market, reflecting heightened hedging demand ahead of the upcoming US and Japanese central bank meetings. The overall structure remains fragile as the market awaits the December FOMC outcome.
I. Macro Environment and Market Sentiment Analysis
Macro Drivers and Strong Correlation
The trajectory of the crypto market this past week was almost entirely driven by macro sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining a strong 30-day correlation coefficient of 0.72 with Nasdaq futures.
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Bearish Shock: BTC prices initially retraced to the support level near $83,800, impacted by expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan.
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Bullish Lift: Optimism surrounding the warming "Hassett Trade" narrative, combined with Fed liquidity injections and the expectation that Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, would launch a Bitcoin ETF, propelled Bitcoin to rebound toward the critical resistance at $94,000.
Price Performance and Market Sentiment
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Price Action: Bitcoin managed a marginal weekly gain of 0.03%, forming a "Doji" candlestick, which signals significant indecision within the $83,800 to $94,000 range.
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Market Sentiment: Despite the price rebound, overall sentiment remains in the Fear zone, indicating that market confidence has yet to be fully restored, with caution dominating short-term positioning.
II. Spot Market Weakness: Deteriorating ETF Flows and Selling Pressure
US Bitcoin ETF Net Flows Worsen
The financial health of US Bitcoin ETFs was a key driver of spot market weakness this week:
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Consecutive Outflows: Net outflows totaled $87 million for the week, marking the second consecutive week of low or negative net flows.
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Institutional Caution: This deterioration suggests institutional participants are maintaining a more cautious stance amidst macroeconomic and market uncertainties, directly undermining spot market buying support.
Exchange Trading Behavior Analysis (CVD Reversal)
Against the backdrop of sustained weak ETF demand, exchange trading behavior changed markedly:
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CVD Turns Negative: The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for major exchanges (including Binance and the aggregated market) retreated simultaneously and showed a persistent negative trend.
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Seller Dominance: This clearly indicates that taker-driven selling pressure is dominating the market, with traders opting for active selling to hedge against short-term uncertainty rather than aggressively accumulating positions.
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Institutional Buyer Retreat: Even Coinbase, which typically represents US institutional and high-net-worth buying power, saw its CVD flatten, further confirming a widespread retreat in spot buying confidence across the entire market.
III. On-Chain Data and Market Cap Analysis
Key On-Chain Support Levels
On-chain data suggests the formation of new price anchors following the recent volatility:
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Short-Term Support: A new price support area has formed near $90,000.
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Critical Support: $83,000 remains the most important support level, a crucial line of defense for the bulls.
Market Capacity and Liquidity Concentration
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Total Market Cap and Volume: The total crypto asset market cap decreased by 2.27% week-over-week to $3039.267 billion. While total trading volume rose by 7.0%, this was a result of frequent risk events pushing prices down and boosting turnover, rather than healthy demand growth.
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Bitcoin Liquidity Concentration: Due to flight-to-safety sentiment, liquidity continued to concentrate in Bitcoin, pushing its trading volume dominance up to 47.6%—a three-week consecutive high for the year. This reflects investor reliance on BTC's asset qualities during times of market uncertainty.
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Altcoin Consolidation: The total altcoin market cap held flat, with trading volume increasing slightly by 4.7%, lagging the broader market. Following two months of turbulence, market interest has visibly declined, and the altcoin sector appears to be entering a phase of consolidation/bottoming out.
IV. Derivatives Market Hedging and Forward Outlook
Option Implied Volatility (IV) Spike
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IV Rally: Near-term option implied volatility has risen markedly, with IV for short-term options (expiring within two weeks) nearing their phase highs.
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Hedging Demand: This trend indicates significant uncertainty remains regarding next week's FOMC meeting and the subsequent Bank of Japan decision. Investors are accelerating their purchases of short-term options to hedge against potential sharp short-term volatility risks, signaling persistent risk aversion.
Summary of Future Drivers
The overall market structure is weak, but the short- and mid-term drivers are clear:
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| Phase | Key Event | Potential Impact | Investment Logic |
| Short-Term | December FOMC Meeting Outcome | Could trigger volatility from a potentially "hawkish cut," maintaining pressure on market sentiment. | Risk Aversion is paramount, pending the resolution of macro uncertainty. |
| Mid-Term | Rising Hassett Succession Expectation | Could initiate a looser "Hassett Trade" logic, improving liquidity and risk appetite. | Opportunistic accumulation could provide potential momentum for Bitcoin's subsequent rally. |
V. Risk and Strategy Summary
Weekly Summary: The crypto market was heavily controlled by macro sentiment this week. Despite mixed signals, prices only marginally closed higher. Spot buying support has weakened significantly, ETF flows are negative, and CVD is comprehensively negative, indicating active selling is dominating the market.
Key Support and Resistance:
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Most Important Support: $83,000
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Short-Term Support: $90,000
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Key Resistance: $94,000
Investment Strategy:
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Short-Term Prudence: Given the high short-term options IV and the imminent FOMC meeting, investors are advised to remain cautious and limit directional position accumulation in the immediate future.
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Focus on Macro: Closely monitor the outcomes of the FOMC meeting and the Fed's commentary on future liquidity, as this will directly determine short-term market volatility direction.
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Mid-Term Positioning: Long-term investors should watch the market's reaction to the "Hassett Trade" expectation. If expectations for looser policy continue to grow, consider making strategic mid-to-long-term entries near the core support levels.