যদি ডেমোক্র্যাটিক সিনেটর এলিজাবেথ ওয়ারেন ব্যাংকিং কমিটির চেয়ারপারসন হন, তাহলে ক্রিপ্টোকারেন্সির উপর তাঁর কঠোর মনোভাবের প্রভাব কী হবে? গত দুই দিন ধরে আমরা চিন্তিত, ডেমোক্র্যাটরা কংগ্রেস নিয়ন্ত্রণে আসলে ক্রিপ্টোকারেন্সি ধ্বংস হয়ে যাবে—বিশেষ করে গত কয়েকদিন আগে ওয়াল স্ট্রিট জার্নাল-এর প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়েছিল, ২০২৭ সালের জানুয়ারিতে ওয়ারেন ব্যাংকিং কমিটির চেয়ারপারসন হবেন, এই খবরটি আমাদের উদ্বেগকে আরও বাড়িয়েছে। আমরা আগের আলোচনায় ‘মাস্ক’-এর ‘ক্লিয়ার’-এর কথা যেভাবে বিশ্লেষণ করেছিলাম, সেই same framework-এই এখনও চলতে থাকবে: আমাদেরকে আইনগত (legislative) এবং প্রশাসনিক (executive) ক্ষমতা—এই দুটির মধ্যে পার্থক্যটি বুঝতে হবে। 1. প্রথমে, ওয়ারেনের ক্রিপ্টোকারেন্সির প্রতি মনোভাব: 1) AML (Anti-Money Laundering) দায়িত্বগুলির প্রসার: ওয়ারেন চান, wallet providers, miners, validators, and other participants-এরও监管 coverage-এর মধ্যে আসা। 2)伝統金融システムと預金者を保護する: ওয়ারেন বিশেষভাবে উদ্বিগ্ন, bank-এরা crypto risk-কে deposit, credit, payment system-এর মধ্যে নিয়ে আসছে। 3) Tokenization-এর মাধ্যমে securities law-এর escape-এর প্রতি: ওয়ারেন opposition-করেন, business-দেরকে asset-কে blockchain-এ upload-এর mere basis-এ securities-এরচেয়ে less stringent treatment-পাওয়া। 4) Political figures-এর crypto-based profit-এর 限制: Trump-এর second term-এরপর, conflict of interest-কেওয়ারেন investigation and bill-blocking-এর key tool-এরূপে use-করছেন। 2. First, Democrats control the majority in Congress and Warren becomes chair of the Banking Committee. Senate Banking Committee-এর power significant, but it is a legislative and oversight body—it cannot directly enforce regulations. Its jurisdiction includes banks, securities markets, currency, financial institutions etc. What can it do? 1) New crypto legislation agenda push: এইবছর Clear Act Senate-এ blocked, Warren’s opposition was the key hurdle—especially on ethics clauses. Will Warren push for new, stricter legislation? Likely yes. But we must recognize: this year, even though Republicans controlled both chambers and pushed Clear Act, they couldn’t get enough Democratic support or overcome Senate procedural thresholds. In the next two years, if Democrats push for comprehensive crypto tightening legislation, they will face Republican resistance. 普通法案在参院通过通常只需简单多数，但若遭遇阻挠议事，则需60票绝对多数才能结束辩论。 আরও, even if Democrats successfully pass a hardline bill through both chambers, Trump can still veto it. To override a presidential veto requires two-thirds majority in both chambers—much higher threshold. So without major compromise from both sides, either drastic deregulation or drastic tightening of crypto legislation will likely stall. Warren’s hardline stance will not automatically become law just because she becomes committee chair. 2) Elevate scrutiny of Trump’s crypto business into ongoing committee investigations. But note: congressional investigations and hearings do not automatically constitute criminal conviction. I personally welcome investigations into Trump’s crypto activities—they have been deeply damaging. Banking Committee will likely also launch investigations into SEC, CFTC, and crypto firms—this will create market shock and impact. But again: congressional investigations and hearings are limited to oversight—they do not equal criminal conviction. For further legal action, DOJ must initiate prosecution—but for the next two years, DOJ will remain under Republican control. 3) Approve Trump’s nominations for financial regulators: If Trump nominates new SEC or CFTC commissioners over the next two years, those appointments require approval from the Banking Committee. 3. Let’s keep separating legislative power from executive power. For the next two years, SEC and CFTC chairs will remain Republican-appointed. Within their statutory authority, they can implement policy without needing congressional approval. Warren can demand that regulators appear before hearings to explain policy justifications, request documents, and publicly criticize overly broad exemptions. But these oversight actions alone do not automatically halt or invalidate policies. For example: SEC’s conditional exemption for tokenized stock trading (Sept 2024); CFTC’s preliminary consultation on CTX/CAM framework (Oct 2024)—both are exercising existing legal authority. Therefore, as long as Trump remains president and SEC/CFTC leadership continues to support crypto development, even without new laws, regulatory agencies can still advance policies under existing authority. If Democrats want to fundamentally change those authorities or force stricter policies, they must overcome both legislative hurdles and presidential veto. 4. Of course, it’s not zero impact. Overall: Warren can block new legislation and significantly increase pressure on regulators and firms. Comprehensive new laws remain difficult; however, oversight and legal challenges will intensify. Some policies may slow down; some exemptions may narrow. Regulators may add more restrictive conditions to strengthen legal defensibility. A single fiery hearing can trigger market anxiety and volatility. But existing crypto policies under current authority will continue to advance—SEC and CFTC will still act within their existing mandates. Over the next two years, the crypto regulatory environment will likely be no stricter than 2023–2024 (when Democrats controlled the White House and Senate majority, and CFTC/DOJ were also under Democratic leadership).