গত সপ্তাহে আমি ব্রডকমে $2K মূল্যের শেয়ার কিনেছিলাম, তাই আমি সিদ্ধান্ত নিয়েছি যে এর কিছু ছোট ছোট অংশ না দিয়ে আমার সম্পূর্ণ থিসিসটি উপস্থাপন করা উচিত। তাই এখানে এটি: আমরা সবাই জানি যে FY 2028-এর জন্য $30 EPS-এর প্রত্যাশিত সংখ্যাটি একটি সমঝোতামূলক পরিচালনা-নেতৃত্বাধীন বুল কেসকে সমর্থন করে, যা যদি আমরা একটি সাধারণ, সূচক গড় 20x গুণক ব্যবহার করি, তবে $AVGO-কে এখনকার মূল্য থেকে $600-এরও বেশি প্রতি শেয়ারের কাছাকাছি নিয়ে আসবে। FYI, এটি 20-এরও কম মাসের মধ্যে দ্বিগুণ। এখন, কি Broadcom-এর সত্যিই FY2028-এর শেষে $30 EPS-এর মতো উৎপাদন করা সম্ভব? - এটি সম্ভব করার জন্য কোন্‌গুলো নির্দিষ্ট সংখ্যা এবং আর্থিক ধারণা? - $30 EPS-এ, 20x TTM গুণকটি যুক্তিসঙ্গত কি? তাদের Q3'26-এর Earnings Call-এ, পরিচালনা $2027-এ $115B-এরও বেশি, FY2028-এর শেষে $230B AI Semiconductor Revenue-এর জন্য আহ্বানজনিত। এটি 2টি consecutive fiscal year-এ 2টি double! তাই, আসুনগুলোকে 3টি main revenue source-এ split-করি (2nd and 3rd-কে 2বছরেরজন্য FLAT-হিসেবে consider-করা:) যা আমাদের current (Q3'26) - | NOTE: We will use most of those metrics as they are, implying ZERO GROWTH to make it a flat, simple base case. 1: Total revenue $29.59B +86% 2: Semi's solutions revenue $20.84B +127% 3: Software revenue $8.75B +29% 4: AI semi's revenue $16.7B +221% 5: Non-GAAP operating income $20.10B +92% 6: Non-GAAP net income $16.37B +95% 7: Non-GAAP diluted EPS $3.32 +97% 8: FCF $13.67B +95% আমারকাছে 2টি key point-এই: 1: 1টি quarter-এ $16.37B non-GAAP net income (যদি 4টি quarter-এই same level maintain kori without growth, then annualized $65.5B) | 2: Profitability growth growth-এর sath sath chole. Non-GAAP operating income 92% grow korechilo while revenue 86% grow korechilo. Company kew shudhu beshi chip sell korchilo na; it is converting a large share of incremental revenue into operating profit. এখন, let's split those numbers into 3 main revenue sources (2 and 3 are considered FLAT for 2 years for illustrative purposes) | 1: AI Semiconductors (accelerators, networking & optics) - $230B management's stated 2028 outlook | 2: Non-AI Semi's (storage and connectivity) - last reported quarterly RR of $4.3B | 3: Infrastructure Software (including VMware) - last reported quarterly RR of $8.7B Annual basis e: $230B + 4*$4.3B + 4*$8.7B = $282B for FY2028 if the business stays FLAT from here and the AI part grows as projected. এখন, let's convert this number into OPERATING INCOME; - Last reported non-GAAP op. margin is roughly 66%, resulting in operating income being $186B with our number. (keep in mind, we are acting like their margins won't grow during the 24-month period for illustrative purposes) Now, let's convert operating income to NET INCOME; - With todays Net Interest and other operating costs PLUS the taxes of 16%, we lose about $32B - landing just above $153B for clean, net profit. That's our figure of the day - $153B of net income after the company illustratively grew ZERO PERCENT for 8 QUARTERS and only got their AI bills paid by the customers who are locked-in with their NCNR contracts. The math is simple now; $153.4B devided by 4.9 billion of diluted outstanding shares equals to $32 of EPS. What's Broadcom's average 10-year TTM multiple on earnings? 42x to 54x 42 times $32 gets us to $1350 per share by the end of 2028. Keep in mind - this is me researching, basing my maths on HISTORY, CONFIRMED NUMBERS and KEEPING UN-CONFIRMED PARTS FLAT Matter of fact, we all know they are going to have much more than $30 of EPS because their other businesses are OBVIOUSLY going to grow as well. The bear case again? Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and Google go to ZERO, reach financial INSOLVENCY and call it quits. The REAL case? They probably won't go anywhere and WILL pay Broadcom their lunch. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, DO YOUR OWN DILLIGENCE. Thank you for reading