đ¨đ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻ āϰāĻŋāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻ āĻāϤāĻāĻžāϞ KBW āĻāϰā§āϤā§āĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻļāĻŋāϤ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻ āϰāĻŋāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻā§ āĻāĻ āϝā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻāĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāĻĒāύ āĻāϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ āϝā§, āĻŽāĻžāĻāύāĻžāϰāĻĻā§āϰ HPC-āĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻļ āĻāϰāĻž āĻāĻāĻŋāϤ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻā§āύ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāϰāĻāĻžāĻā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻĒāϞāĻžāĻāύ āĻŽāĻžāϞā§āĻāĻŋāĻĒāϞāϏ āĻŦāĻŋāϞā§āĻĒā§āϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āϏā§āĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻŦāĻ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāϰ⧠āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āĻā§āĻā§ āϝā§, āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāĻĻā§āϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝ⧠āĻāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āύāĻžāĻŽāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāϧāĻžāύāϤ āĻĻāĻāϞāĻĻāĻžāϰāĨ¤ âĄđī¸ $APLD (810 MW) âĄđī¸ $HUT (352 MW Beacon Point āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž + āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āϤāĻžāϰ) âĄđī¸ $WULF (Anthropic at Hawesville) âĄđī¸ $CLSK (178MW Sandersville + āĻā§āĻā§āϏāĻžāϏ⧠~610 MW-āĻāϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻāĻāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž āĻ āϧāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰ) âĄđī¸ $RIOT āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āĻ $AMD āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āϤāĻžāϰ āϝā§āĻ āĻāϰā§āĻā§ âĄđī¸ Crusoe-āĻāϰ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ Meta āĻā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋāĨ¤ āύāϤā§āύ āĻ āĻāĻļāĻā§āϰāĻšāĻŖāĻāĻžāϰā§āĻĻā§āϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝ⧠$BTDR (Tydal, āύāϰāĻāϝāĻŧā§ āĻĢā§āĻ-1, āĻļāϰā§āϤāĻžāĻŦāϞā§āϰ āĻ āĻĒā§āĻā§āώāĻžāϝāĻŧ) āĻāĻŦāĻ $HIVE (Boden LOI) āĻļā§āϧā§āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻĒāϞāĻžāĻāύ āϰā§āĻĒāĻžāύā§āϤāϰ āĻāϰāĻž āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤ đ¤ HPC āĻā§āϞā§āĻā§āĻļāύā§āϰ āĻŽā§āϞāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāώāϝāĻŧāĻā§āϞāĻŋ āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻāĻāĻžāĻŦā§āĻ āĻ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻšāϤ: đ Q2-āĻ āύā§āĻ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϝāĻŧ 1.19 GW-āĻ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ Q3-āĻ 928 MW-āĻāϰ āĻā§āώāĻŖāĻž āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŽāϧā§āϝā§āĻ āĻāϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ āĻšāĻžāĻāĻĒāĻžāϰāϏā§āĻā§āϞāĻžāϰāĻā§āϞāĻŋ āĻāĻŦāĻ AI āϞā§āϝāĻžāĻŦāĻā§āϞāĻŋ āĻĄā§āϞāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋāϰ āĻāĻā§āĻ āĻā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻž āύāĻŋāĻļā§āĻāĻŋāϤ āĻāϰāĻā§, āϝāĻž āĻāύā§āύāϝāĻŧāύāĻāϰāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϰāĻ āϏāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦā§āĻ, āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻā§ āϏāĻŽāϰā§āĻĨāύ āĻāϰāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāĻĻā§āϰ 87% (āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ 2.21 GW-āĻāϰ) @APLDdigital, @Hut8Corp, @TeraWulfInc-āĻāϰāĻāĨ¤ āĻšāĻžāĻāĻĒāĻžāϰāϏā§āĻā§āϞāĻžāϰāĻā§āϞāĻŋ āĻāĻāύāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŽāĻžāĻŖāĻŋāϤ partners-āĻāϰāĻ āĻĒāĻāύā§āĻĻ, āϤāĻŦā§ âāϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ-āĻĨā§āĻā§-āĻĒāĻžāĻāϝāĻŧāĻžāϰâāĻ (time to power) ā§§āĻāĻŋ āĻā§āϰā§āϤā§āĻŦāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āĻĨāĻā§āϝāĻāĻžāϰā§, āĨ¤ @CleanSpark_Inc-āĻāϰ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ ā§§āĻāĻŋ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāϝāĻžā§āĻā§āϝāĻāĻžāĻŦā§, tenant-āĻāϰ pool-āĻāϰ expand-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§, but with added model layer risk: âđģ Frontier AI labs (IG hardware provider credit support-āĻāϰ) $AWS, $NVDA, and others-āĻāϰ sath lease-signing-āĻ join-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāϤ⧠demand broad-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§, but developers-āĻā§ model outcomes-āĻāϰ uncertainty-āĻāϰ direct exposure-āĻ put-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§, and potentially partial (vs. full) credit backstops-āĻ, future cap rate expansion-āĻāϰ risk increase-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§ pure hyperscaler/IG enterprise leases-āĻāϰ compare-āϤāĨ¤ đ Current selloff mostly pipeline de-rating-āĻāϰ result: Constant ~$17 MM/MW equity creation assumption (6.7% cap rate)-āĻ, current valuations imply only ~1.7 GW of future leases across coverage universe, June peak-āĻ ~80% visible interconnect-approved pipeline-āĻāϰ compare-āϤ sharply down to just ~41% today. Market now forward credit assign-āĻāϰāĻā§ little to no recent proven signers-āĻāĨ¤ đĻ Funding conditions selectively tighten, mixed implications: Average miner project bond yields late June-āĻ ~96 bps rise (IG-tenant bonds +58 bps to ~6.51%; non-IG/CoreWeave-backed +172 bps to 8.82%). Higher capital cost proven developers-āĻā§ favor-āĻāϰāĻā§, simultaneously hyperscaler self-builds-āĻ cost increase-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§, which supports third-party leasing demand. đĩ Hyperscalers themselves more equity-āϤ turn-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§: ($GOOG) @Google's ~$85 B raise + ATM; ($META) @Meta's reportedly considering equity đ Lease economics higher cost and longer term-āĻāĻ well hold-āĻšāĻā§āĻā§: Untrended first year yield on cost recent (ex-$APLD) deals-āĻ ~13.2% moderate-āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§, primarily higher estimated capex (~$11 MM/MW) and shift toward 20-year terms-āĻāĨ¤ Trended NOI/MW however continues to set new highs (~$1.95 MM), and absolute rents resilient remain as IG tenants still willing to pre-commit. Long term compute demand intact, but model layer uncertainty and cloud pivots caution warrant: Hyperscaler uncommenced lease obligations surged (Q1-āĻ big four across $561 B+ reach). Miners should still prefer pure IG/hyperscaler leases over lab backed ones. đ Multi-year reserved GPUaaS contracts essentially colocation âin cloud costumeâ (miners GPU risk take), while true AIaaS differentiation hyperscalers and frontier labs against difficult remain. GPUaaS market itself becoming crowded: Meta, @SoftBank, xAI (supporting $SPCX).
Earnest HamiltonāĻļā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ




āĻā§āϏ:āĻāϏāϞ āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāύ
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