source avatarEarnest Hamilton

āĻļ⧇āϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ

🚨📁 āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞ⧇āώāĻ• āϰāĻŋāĻĒā§‹āĻ°ā§āϟ āĻ—āϤāĻ•āĻžāϞ KBW āĻ•āĻ°ā§āϤ⧃āĻ• āĻĒā§āϰāĻ•āĻžāĻļāĻŋāϤ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞ⧇āώāĻ• āϰāĻŋāĻĒā§‹āĻ°ā§āĻŸā§‡ āĻāχ āϝ⧁āĻ•ā§āϤāĻŋ āωāĻĒāĻ¸ā§āĻĨāĻžāĻĒāύ āĻ•āϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧ⧇āϛ⧇ āϝ⧇, āĻŽāĻžāχāύāĻžāϰāĻĻ⧇āϰ HPC-āĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦ⧇āĻļ āĻ•āϰāĻž āωāϚāĻŋāϤ āĻāĻŦāĻ‚ āϕ⧇āύ āĻŦ⧇āĻļāĻŋāϰāĻ­āĻžāϗ⧇āϰ āϜāĻ¨ā§āϝ āĻĒāĻžāχāĻĒāϞāĻžāχāύ āĻŽāĻžāĻ˛ā§āϟāĻŋāĻĒāϞāϏ āĻŦāĻŋāϞ⧁āĻĒā§āϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧ⧇ āϗ⧇āϛ⧇āĨ¤ āĻ¸ā§āĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāĻ‚ āĻāĻŦāĻ‚ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāϰ⧇ āĻĻ⧇āĻ–āĻž āϗ⧇āϛ⧇ āϝ⧇, āĻ­āĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϟāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāĻĻ⧇āϰ āĻŽāĻ§ā§āϝ⧇ āĻ•āϝāĻŧ⧇āĻ•āϟāĻŋ āύāĻžāĻŽāχ āĻĒā§āϰāϧāĻžāύāϤ āĻĻāĻ–āϞāĻĻāĻžāϰāĨ¤ âšĄđŸ—ī¸ $APLD (810 MW) âšĄđŸ—ī¸ $HUT (352 MW Beacon Point āĻ­āĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž + āĻŦāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āϤāĻžāϰ) âšĄđŸ—ī¸ $WULF (Anthropic at Hawesville) âšĄđŸ—ī¸ $CLSK (178MW Sandersville + āĻŸā§‡āĻ•ā§āϏāĻžāϏ⧇ ~610 MW-āĻāϰ āϜāĻ¨ā§āϝ āĻāĻ•āĻšā§‡āϟāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž āĻ…āϧāĻŋāĻ•āĻžāϰ) âšĄđŸ—ī¸ $RIOT āĻāĻ•āϟāĻŋ āϛ⧋āϟ $AMD āĻŦāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āϤāĻžāϰ āϝ⧋āĻ— āĻ•āϰ⧇āϛ⧇ âšĄđŸ—ī¸ Crusoe-āĻāϰ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ Meta āϚ⧁āĻ•ā§āϤāĻŋāĨ¤ āύāϤ⧁āύ āĻ…āĻ‚āĻļāĻ—ā§āϰāĻšāĻŖāĻ•āĻžāϰ⧀āĻĻ⧇āϰ āĻŽāĻ§ā§āϝ⧇ $BTDR (Tydal, āύāϰāĻ“āϝāĻŧ⧇ āĻĢ⧇āϜ-1, āĻļāĻ°ā§āϤāĻžāĻŦāϞ⧀āϰ āĻ…āĻĒ⧇āĻ•ā§āώāĻžāϝāĻŧ) āĻāĻŦāĻ‚ $HIVE (Boden LOI) āĻļ⧁āϧ⧁āĻŽāĻžāĻ¤ā§āϰ āĻĒāĻžāχāĻĒāϞāĻžāχāύ āϰ⧁āĻĒāĻžāĻ¨ā§āϤāϰ āĻ•āϰāĻž āĻļ⧁āϰ⧁ āĻ•āϰ⧇āϛ⧇āĨ¤ 🤝 HPC āϕ⧋āϞ⧋āϕ⧇āĻļāύ⧇āϰ āĻŽā§ŒāϞāĻŋāĻ• āĻŦāĻŋāώāϝāĻŧāϗ⧁āϞāĻŋ āχāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϚāĻ•āĻ­āĻžāĻŦ⧇āχ āĻ…āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻšāϤ: 📈 Q2-āĻ āύ⧇āϟ āĻ­āĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϝāĻŧ 1.19 GW-āĻ āĻŦ⧃āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ āĻĒ⧇āϝāĻŧ⧇āϛ⧇ Q3-āĻ 928 MW-āĻāϰ āĻ˜ā§‹āώāĻŖāĻž āχāϤāĻŋāĻŽāĻ§ā§āϝ⧇āχ āĻ•āϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧ⧇āϛ⧇ āĻšāĻžāχāĻĒāĻžāϰāĻ¸ā§āϕ⧇āϞāĻžāϰāϗ⧁āϞāĻŋ āĻāĻŦāĻ‚ AI āĻ˛ā§āϝāĻžāĻŦāϗ⧁āϞāĻŋ āĻĄā§‡āϞāĻŋāĻ­āĻžāϰāĻŋāϰ āφāϗ⧇āχ āĻ•ā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻž āύāĻŋāĻļā§āϚāĻŋāϤ āĻ•āϰāϛ⧇, āϝāĻž āωāĻ¨ā§āύāϝāĻŧāύāĻ–āϰāϚ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϰāĻ“ āϏāĻ¤ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻŦ⧇āĻ“, āĻļāĻ•ā§āϤāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ⧀ āĻ­āĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϰ āĻ…āĻ°ā§āĻĨāύ⧀āϤāĻŋāϕ⧇ āϏāĻŽāĻ°ā§āĻĨāύ āĻ•āϰāϛ⧇āĨ¤ āĻ­āĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϟāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāĻĻ⧇āϰ 87% (āĻŦāĻ›āϰ⧇āϰ 2.21 GW-āĻāϰ) @APLDdigital, @Hut8Corp, @TeraWulfInc-āĻāϰāχāĨ¤ āĻšāĻžāχāĻĒāĻžāϰāĻ¸ā§āϕ⧇āϞāĻžāϰāϗ⧁āϞāĻŋ āĻāĻ–āύāĻ“ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŽāĻžāĻŖāĻŋāϤ partners-āĻāϰāχ āĻĒāĻ›āĻ¨ā§āĻĻ, āϤāĻŦ⧇ “āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ-āĻĨ⧇āϕ⧇-āĻĒāĻžāĻ“āϝāĻŧāĻžāĻ°â€āχ (time to power) ā§§āϟāĻŋ āϗ⧁āϰ⧁āĻ¤ā§āĻŦāĻĒā§‚āĻ°ā§āĻŖāĻ­āĻžāĻŦ⧇ āĻĒāĻžāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻ•ā§āϝāĻ•āĻžāϰ⧀, āĨ¤ @CleanSpark_Inc-āĻāϰ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ ā§§āϟāĻŋ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻ‚āĻ•āϝāĻžā§āĻ—ā§āϝāĻ­āĻžāĻŦ⧇, tenant-āĻāϰ pool-āĻāϰ expand-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇, but with added model layer risk: ✍đŸģ Frontier AI labs (IG hardware provider credit support-āĻāϰ) $AWS, $NVDA, and others-āĻāϰ sath lease-signing-āĻ join-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇āĨ¤ āĻāϤ⧇ demand broad-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇, but developers-āϕ⧇ model outcomes-āĻāϰ uncertainty-āĻāϰ direct exposure-āĻ put-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇, and potentially partial (vs. full) credit backstops-āĻ, future cap rate expansion-āĻāϰ risk increase-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇ pure hyperscaler/IG enterprise leases-āĻāϰ compare-āϤāĨ¤ 📉 Current selloff mostly pipeline de-rating-āĻāϰ result: Constant ~$17 MM/MW equity creation assumption (6.7% cap rate)-āĻ, current valuations imply only ~1.7 GW of future leases across coverage universe, June peak-āĻ ~80% visible interconnect-approved pipeline-āĻāϰ compare-āϤ sharply down to just ~41% today. Market now forward credit assign-āĻ•āϰāϛ⧇ little to no recent proven signers-āĻāĨ¤ đŸĻ Funding conditions selectively tighten, mixed implications: Average miner project bond yields late June-āĻ ~96 bps rise (IG-tenant bonds +58 bps to ~6.51%; non-IG/CoreWeave-backed +172 bps to 8.82%). Higher capital cost proven developers-āϕ⧇ favor-āĻ•āϰāϛ⧇, simultaneously hyperscaler self-builds-āĻ cost increase-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇, which supports third-party leasing demand. đŸ’ĩ Hyperscalers themselves more equity-āϤ turn-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇: ($GOOG) @Google's ~$85 B raise + ATM; ($META) @Meta's reportedly considering equity 📃 Lease economics higher cost and longer term-āĻāĻ“ well hold-āĻšāĻšā§āϛ⧇: Untrended first year yield on cost recent (ex-$APLD) deals-āĻ ~13.2% moderate-āĻšāϝāĻŧ⧇āϛ⧇, primarily higher estimated capex (~$11 MM/MW) and shift toward 20-year terms-āĻāĨ¤ Trended NOI/MW however continues to set new highs (~$1.95 MM), and absolute rents resilient remain as IG tenants still willing to pre-commit. Long term compute demand intact, but model layer uncertainty and cloud pivots caution warrant: Hyperscaler uncommenced lease obligations surged (Q1-āĻ big four across $561 B+ reach). Miners should still prefer pure IG/hyperscaler leases over lab backed ones. 🔌 Multi-year reserved GPUaaS contracts essentially colocation “in cloud costume” (miners GPU risk take), while true AIaaS differentiation hyperscalers and frontier labs against difficult remain. GPUaaS market itself becoming crowded: Meta, @SoftBank, xAI (supporting $SPCX).

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āĻĻāĻžāĻŦāĻŋāĻ¤ā§āϝāĻžāĻ—: āĻāχ āĻĒ⧃āĻˇā§āĻ āĻžāϰ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ āϤ⧃āϤ⧀āϝāĻŧ āĻĒāĻ•ā§āώ⧇āϰ āĻ•āĻžāĻ› āĻĨ⧇āϕ⧇ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāĻĒā§āϤ āĻšāϤ⧇ āĻĒāĻžāϰ⧇ āĻāĻŦāĻ‚ āĻ…āĻ—āĻ¤ā§āϝāĻž KuCoin āĻāϰ āĻŽāϤāĻžāĻŽāϤ āĻŦāĻž āĻŽāϤāĻžāĻŽāϤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻĢāϞāĻŋāϤ āĻ•āϰ⧇ āύāĻžāĨ¤ āĻāχ āĻŦāĻŋāώāϝāĻŧāĻŦāĻ¸ā§āϤ⧁ āĻļ⧁āϧ⧁āĻŽāĻžāĻ¤ā§āϰ āϏāĻžāϧāĻžāϰāĻŖ āϤāĻĨā§āϝāĻ—āϤ āωāĻĻā§āĻĻ⧇āĻļā§āϝ⧇ āĻĒā§āϰāĻĻāĻžāύ āĻ•āϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧ, āϕ⧋āύ āϧāϰāύ⧇āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāύāĻŋāϧāĻŋāĻ¤ā§āĻŦ āĻŦāĻž āĻ“āϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ⧇āĻ¨ā§āϟāĻŋ āĻ›āĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāχ, āĻŦāĻž āĻāϟāĻŋāϕ⧇ āφāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ• āĻŦāĻž āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§‹āĻ— āĻĒāϰāĻžāĻŽāĻ°ā§āĻļ āĻšāĻŋāϏāĻžāĻŦ⧇ āĻŦā§‹āĻāĻžāύ⧋ āĻšāĻŦ⧇ āύāĻžāĨ¤ KuCoin āϕ⧋āύ⧋ āĻ¤ā§āϰ⧁āϟāĻŋ āĻŦāĻž āĻŦāĻžāĻĻ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϰ āϜāĻ¨ā§āϝ āĻŦāĻž āĻāχ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāĻšāĻžāϰ⧇āϰ āĻĢāϞ⧇ āϝ⧇ āϕ⧋āύ⧋ āĻĢāϞāĻžāĻĢāϞ⧇āϰ āϜāĻ¨ā§āϝ āĻĻāĻžāϝāĻŧā§€ āĻĨāĻžāĻ•āĻŦ⧇ āύāĻžāĨ¤ āĻĄāĻŋāϜāĻŋāϟāĻžāϞ āϏāĻŽā§āĻĒāĻĻ⧇ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§‹āĻ— āĻā§āρāĻ•āĻŋāĻĒā§‚āĻ°ā§āĻŖ āĻšāϤ⧇ āĻĒāĻžāϰ⧇āĨ¤ āφāĻĒāύāĻžāϰ āύāĻŋāĻœā§‡āϰ āφāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ• āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāϰ āωāĻĒāϰ āĻ­āĻŋāĻ¤ā§āϤāĻŋ āĻ•āϰ⧇ āĻāĻ•āϟāĻŋ āĻĒāĻŖā§āϝ⧇āϰ āĻā§āρāĻ•āĻŋ āĻāĻŦāĻ‚ āφāĻĒāύāĻžāϰ āĻā§āρāĻ•āĻŋ āϏāĻšāύāĻļā§€āϞāϤāĻž āϏāĻžāĻŦāϧāĻžāύ⧇ āĻŽā§‚āĻ˛ā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ āĻ•āϰ⧁āύāĨ¤ āφāϰāĻ“ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ⧇āϰ āϜāĻ¨ā§āϝ, āĻ…āύ⧁āĻ—ā§āϰāĻš āĻ•āϰ⧇ āφāĻŽāĻžāĻĻ⧇āϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāĻšāĻžāϰ⧇āϰ āĻļāĻ°ā§āϤāĻžāĻŦāϞ⧀ āĻāĻŦāĻ‚ āĻā§āρāĻ•āĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻ•āĻžāĻļ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧ⧁āύāĨ¤