অপশন মার্কেটের সেটআপের কারণে BTC $78K-এর নিচে নেমে গেল এবং $75K-এর দিকে পতন বাড়তে পারে

বিটকয়েনের $78,000-এর নিচে ফিরে আসা, যা সাম্প্রতিক রেঞ্জের উচ্চতম স্তরে টিকে থাকতে ব্যর্থ হয়েছিল, গ্লাসনোড বলছে, এটি অপশন ট্রেডারদের একটি প্রতিরক্ষামূলক অবস্থানে নিয়ে গেছে—এবং অপশন মার্কেটের বিন্যাস $75,000-এর মধ্যভাগের দিকে যেকোনো পতনকে আরও তীব্র করতে পারে। প্রধান পয়েন্টগুলি: - BTC স্থানীয় রেঞ্জের শীর্ষের কাছাকাছি প্রত্যাখ্যান করেছে এবং $78,000-এর নিচে নেমে গেছে; প্রেস সময়ে BTC $76,744-এ ট্রেড হচ্ছে। - প্রতিহিত অস্থিরতা সংকুচিত হচ্ছে: এক-সপ্তাহের প্রতিহিত অস্থিরতা ~31% (এই সপ্তাহের শুরুতে ~39% থেকে কমেছে); দীর্ঘমেয়াদী ভলসও হালকা কমেছে। “বাজারটি আবারও সংক্ষিপ্তমেয়াদী পরিস্থিতির শান্তিপূর্ণ পরিবেশকেই মূল্যায়ন করছে,” গ্লাসনোড লিখেছে। - পুট চাহিদা স্কিউয়ার মেট্রিকসকে নিয়ন্ত্রণ করছে: 25-ডেল্টা স্কিউয়ার “স্থিরভাবে পুট অঞ্চলে” রয়েছে, এক-সপ্তাহের স্কিউয়ার 24%-এরও বেশি ছিল, তারপরও হালকা কমেছে,এবং বেশিরভাগ স্কিউয়ার-ইনডেক্স টেনর 1-এর নিচে—পুটগুলি, কলগুলির চেয়ে সমৃদ্ধ। 6-মাসের টেনরটিইএকমাত্রব্যতিক্রম,যাএখনওএকটিকলপ্রিমিয়ামদেখাচ্ছে। - realized vs. implied vol-এরমধ্যেবিভাজন:একমাসেরrealized vol ~27% vs. one-month implied ~35%,যা volatility risk premium-কেসাম্প্রতিকউচ্চতমপর্যায়েনিয়ন্ত্রণকরছে। - Gamma map-এ $75,000-এর around-এ short gamma-এর concentration—spot-এরনীচেপ্রায়$3.2বিলিয়নnegative exposure—যা priceযদিএইজোনটিরদিকেঅগ্রসরহয়,তবেডিলারহেজিংকেবাড়িয়েদিতেপারে।$78,000এবং$80,000-এpositive gamma clustersপ্রতিরোধহিসাবেকাজকরতপারে,যাBTCকেউপরথেকেঅপসারণকারীঘর্ষণএবংনীচদিকেতীব্রতারঅঞ্চলদুটিরমধ্যেবন্দীকরছে।“এইসংগঠনটি75K-এনীচদিকেঅস্থিরতাকেতীব্রকরতপারে,”গ্লাসনোডসতর্ককরছে। - Flow compositionপ্রতিরক্ষামূলক:পুটক্রয়হালকা(25%প্রিমিয়াম),কলক্রয়25%,এবংকলবিক্রয়অপরিবর্তিতথাক(25.7%flow)। ডাটা অর্থ: পৃষ্ঠসময়ভাব,এটিএকটিবহি:ফলভাবসফলহয়নি—আবদ্ধহওয়াহয়।তবেডেরিভেটিভসময়ভাবগুলিদেখাচ্ছে,ট্রেডারদেরঅধিকভাবইপুটহজিংয়াগমনহচছ,আবদভগুলি(call)হচছ।সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) (Continued from above) সঙকুচিতফনট-এনডপ্ (Translation cut off due to character limit. Continuing below.) 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