Polymarket

A Beginner’s Guide to Prediction Markets

Last updated: 06/30/2026 08:52:00
Most crypto trades already start with a view on what happens next.
A trader may buy or sell based on ETF news, CPI data, a Fed decision, a token listing, a regulatory headline, an airdrop snapshot, a sports event, or a major market narrative.
Prediction markets make that view directly tradable.
Instead of trading only token prices, users can trade positions on event outcomes, such as whether an event will happen, which team will win, whether a price condition will be met, or whether a market result will settle in a certain way.
This article explains how prediction markets work, how outcome shares are priced, and what crypto traders should check before placing their first trade through KuCoin Web3 Wallet.

Why Prediction Markets Matter

Crypto traders are already used to forming market views.
For example:
  • Will BTC react to macro data?
  • Will a token listing drive attention?
  • Will a new narrative bring more volume?
  • Will a sports or cultural event affect market interest?
  • Will a major announcement change sentiment?
In spot trading, you express that view by buying or selling a token.
In prediction markets, you express that view by taking a position on a specific outcome.
The key difference is simple:
In spot trading, the asset is the token. In prediction markets, the asset is the outcome.

From Token Price Trading to Event Outcome Trading

In a crypto exchange, users usually trade assets such as:
  • BTC
  • ETH
  • SOL
  • Meme coins
  • Other listed tokens
In a prediction market, users may trade outcomes such as:
  • Yes / No
  • Team A / Team B / Draw
  • To Advance
  • Over / Under
  • Correct Score
  • Player markets
  • Price Up / Down
This means you are not buying the event itself, and you are not buying a normal token position.
You are buying a position linked to a specific market question.
For example:
  • Will this event happen?
  • Which side wins?
  • Will the total be over or under a number?
  • Will a team advance?
  • Will a crypto asset finish up or down within a time window?
Before trading, always read the exact market question.

What You Are Buying: Outcome Shares

When you place a trade in a prediction market, you are buying outcome shares.
An outcome share represents a position on one possible result of the market.
For example, if a market asks whether an event will happen, the outcomes may be:
  • Yes
  • No
If a sports market asks who wins, the outcomes may be:
  • Team A
  • Draw
  • Team B
If a crypto market asks whether a price finishes up or down, the outcomes may be:
  • Up
  • Down
If your selected outcome is correct when the market resolves, winning shares usually settle at $1 per share.
If your selected outcome is incorrect, losing shares usually settle at $0.
You may also be able to sell your position before the market resolves, if there is available liquidity and your order can be matched.
The main idea is:
You are not buying a coin. You are buying a position on an outcome.

How to Read Price as Probability

Prediction market prices are usually shown between $0 and $1.
The price can be understood as the market-implied probability of that outcome.
For example:
  • A price of $0.25 means the market is roughly pricing that outcome at 25%;
  • A price of $0.70 means the market is roughly pricing that outcome at 70%.
However, this is not a guaranteed probability or an official prediction.
It is the current market price based on supply, demand, and order book activity.
For crypto traders, the important point is:
In prediction markets, price reflects probability — but execution still depends on the order book.
The displayed price may not always be your final execution price.
Before placing a trade, check:
  • The displayed price;
  • The ask price if you are buying;
  • The bid price if you are selling;
  • The spread between bid and ask;
  • Available liquidity;
  • The total amount you are trying to trade.
If liquidity is low or the spread is wide, your actual execution may be different from the price you first see.

Why the Market Question and Rules Matter

For exchange users, the market question is the contract.
If you read the question wrong, you are trading the wrong market.
Before placing a trade, check exactly what the market is asking.
For example:
  • Is the market asking who wins?
  • Is it asking who advances?
  • Is it based on 90-minute result?
  • Does the market include Draw?
  • Does it include extra time?
  • Does it include penalty shootouts?
  • Is it asking for Over / Under?
  • Is it asking for a correct score?
  • What source will be used for settlement?
This is especially important for sports and event markets.
For example, in football, a team can advance to the next round after extra time or penalties without winning the 90-minute result market.
If your view is “this team reaches the next round,” you may need a To Advance market.
If your view is “this team wins in regular time,” you may need an Outcome market based on 90-minute result.
Do not rely only on the market title. Open the market rules and confirm how the market will be resolved.

How to Start in KuCoin Web3 Wallet

You can access Polymarket through KuCoin Web3 Wallet.
Access Path: KuCoin App → Web3 → Polymarket
Before trading, make sure you have funds available in your Web3 Wallet. You may need to add funds to your Polymarket account in Web3 before placing a trade.
For step-by-step instructions, please refer to this tutorial.

Key Takeaway

Crypto traders already trade views on what may happen next.
Prediction markets turn those views into direct outcome positions.
The most important things to remember are:
  • You are trading an outcome, not a token;
  • Outcome shares usually settle at $1 if correct and $0 if incorrect;
  • Price can be read as market-implied probability;
  • Execution still depends on bid, ask, spread, and liquidity;
  • The market question and rules define what you are actually trading.
If you read the question wrong, you are trading the wrong market.

Risk Reminder

Prediction markets involve risk, including the possible loss of your position value. Prices may change quickly, and outcomes may be affected by market conditions, event updates, official data sources, settlement rules, liquidity, and other factors.
This content is for product education only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset or position.

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