Weekly Crypto Market Decoded

1. Summary

As the deadline for tariff suspension approaches, the game between Bitcoin long and short sides has entered a white hot stage.The current market consensus is that there is significant room for flexibility in the deadline for tariff policies, and the worst-case scenario has been gradually digested, with bullish forces gradually taking the lead.It is worth noting that Bitcoin, similar to the April 2024 scenario, is currently in an important period of hitting its historical high for the third time, and the next two weeks will be a crucial time window for determining the medium-term trend.The trend of trade policies remains the core variable that affects market direction - if successfully broken through, it will open up new upward space, otherwise it may fall into a long-term interval oscillation pattern.

2. Key Events

2.1 The US economic data is mixed, with employment exceeding expectations but weak manufacturing, dispelling expectations of a July interest rate cut; At the same time, Trump signs the 'Big and Beautiful' tax bill

7.1- Goldman Sachs has advanced its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to September.

7.1- Trump: Interest rates should be lowered to 1%, Powell and his committee are both to blame.

7.2- The ISM Manufacturing Index in the United States shrank for four consecutive months in June; the May JOLTS job vacancies in the United States were significantly better than expected.

7.2- Powell: The vast majority of Federal Reserve members expect a rate cut later this year; the federal fiscal path in the United States is unsustainable and must be resolved as soon as possible.

7.3- ADP employment in the United States in June -33000, lower than previous values and expectations.

7.4- Non farm payroll employment in the United States increased by 147000 in June, higher than market expectations; the unemployment rate in the United States in June was 4.1%, lower than the previous and expected values.

7.4- US Treasury Secretary: If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the rate cut in September may be even greater.

7.5- US President Trump signs the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill.

CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary

MEETING DATE	300-325	325-350	350-375	375-400	400-425	425-450
2025/7/30	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	6.20%	93.80%
2025/9/17	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	68.20%	31.80%
2025/10/29	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	30.20%	69.80%	0.00%
2025/12/10	0.00%	0.00%	0.13%	99.87%	0.00%	0.00%

2.2 Tariffs：Negotiations are accelerating before the deadline for the suspension of tariffs.The confusion of tariff deadlines exacerbates uncertainty.

7.1- Trump will meet with the trade team this week to determine the national tariff rates.

7.2- Trump: Not considering extending the deadline for tariff negotiations,it may raise Japanese tariffs.

7.2- India seeks to reach a temporary trade agreement with the United States this week.

7.3- Trump: A trade agreement has been reached with Vietnam.

7.4- US Treasury Secretary: Warns countries not to delay trade negotiations, tariffs can be raised back to April 2nd levels; Trump will decide whether to extend trade negotiations.

7.7- The negotiations for a small-scale trade agreement between India and the United States have been completed, and the average tariff rate may be 10%.

7.7- US Treasury Secretary: Approaching multiple trade agreements, major news is expected to be released in the coming days.

3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance

3.1 Market sentiment remained calm before the tariff deadline, US stock market continues to hit a historic high

Compared to April, the market is welcoming the tariff limit with a more calm attitude.The three major indexes of the US stock market collectively strengthened, with the S&P 500 index soaring 1.72% and the Nasdaq Composite index rising 1.62%, both continuing to set new historical highs. The small cap Russell 2000 Index rose 3.52%, as risk appetite further spread towards assets with higher levels of risk.At the same time, this week's non farm payroll data showed a strong job market, dispelling expectations of a July interest rate cut and leading to a rebound in US Treasury yields.

Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends

3.2 Bitcoin is fluctuating and accumulating momentum, Waiting patiently for the breakthrough of trade policies

Bitcoin has continued its optimistic trend recently, with the daily chart running steadily above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the price fluctuating widely in the range of $105000 to $110000, with a weekly cumulative increase of 0.78%.The correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market has rebounded to a strong level, indicating that the adjustment of internal chips in the cryptocurrency market is coming to an end at the $110000 mark.As the tariff cap approaches, macro factors will once again dominate market trends, and the market may be driven more by trade policy movements, leading to a significant increase in market volatility.If positive signals are released from the policy side, Bitcoin may usher in a key opportunity to break through historical highs, and trade policy will become the core variable of recent trends.

Figure 2: BTC Price Trends

3.3 Bitcoin maintains its dominant position at a high level. Altcoins confidence needs to be further consolidated

As of July 6th, the total market value reached $3358.2 billion, with a week over week increase of 1.61%.In terms of market trading, the total market trading volume this week was 689.77 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.14% compared to the previous week.From a structural perspective, the trading volume of Bitcoin reached $303.25 billion, a decrease of 7.16% compared to the previous period;Bitcoin's dominant position remains high, with a slight decrease in its trading volume proportion to 44.22% and a slight decrease in its market value proportion by 0.09% to 65.30%.The trading volume of Altcoins fell 3.49% month on month. Although the market value of Altcoins rebounded with the market rebound in the short term, market confidence still needs to be further consolidated.

Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins

4. BTC Trend Analysis

4.1 The market has undergone significant short-term turnover, high priced area buying momentum waiting to be broken through

Onchain data shows that Bitcoin addresses have moved a total of 346000 BTC this week, a decrease of 47000 BTC from last week. The market turnover rate has slightly decreased but is still at a relatively high level in recent times.From the distribution of chips, the $104000-107500 range has become the main area for reducing holdings, indicating that some short-term weak chips have left. However, the cumulative reduction of less than 20% in a single price range shows a generally optimistic sentiment; low and medium price chip structures (<100k) are moderately reduced, and overall selling pressure is controllable.At the same time, the $107500-110000 range has gathered major buying forces, with cost increases providing support for subsequent breakthroughs, reflecting that the market still has upward momentum.

Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution

4.2 Strong support from 104K-108K, Reproduction of Historical Chip Structure

After a week of wide fluctuations, Bitcoin chips significantly accumulated in the range of $106000-108000, ultimately forming a strong support band of $104000-108000.The current market structure is quite similar to the third attempt to break through the previous high on April 10, 2024, but the distribution of chips in the high price range this time is more dense, indicating stronger acceptance.The accumulation of heavy chips below the historical high not only indicates fierce competition between long and short sides, but also reflects that bulls are gradually gaining an advantage and accumulating momentum for breakthroughs.However, to avoid repeating the failure of the breakthrough due to geopolitical conflicts in April last year, the market still needs stronger positive stimuli to ultimately confirm the effectiveness of the breakthrough.

Figure 5: BTC Chip Structure

4.3 Long short battle tariff window period: The key game before Bitcoin surges

Overall, as the tariff suspension period approaches, the game between long and short sides has entered a white hot stage.The current market consensus is that there is significant room for flexibility in the deadline for tariff policies, and the worst-case scenario has been gradually digested, with bullish forces gradually taking the lead.It is worth noting that Bitcoin, similar to the April 2024 scenario, is currently in an important period of hitting its historical high for the third time, and the next two weeks will be a crucial time window for determining the medium-term trend.The trend of trade policies remains the core variable that affects market direction . If successfully broken through, it will open up new upward space, otherwise it may fall into a long-term interval oscillation pattern.

Figure 6: BTC Chip Supply Situation

5. Regulatory Trends

America

US Senator Proposes Comprehensive Cryptocurrency Tax Reform Bill, Including Small Transaction Tax Exemption and Abolishing Double Taxation on Miners
The House of Representatives announces' Crypto Week 'and will review multiple cryptocurrency related bills
SEC begins to develop general listing standards for cryptocurrency ETFs
Arizona Governor Rejects Bitcoin Reserve Bill
SEC suspends plan to convert grayscale digital large cap funds into ETFs

Asia

The National Bank of Kazakhstan in Hong Kong announces the establishment of a national reserve of encrypted assets
Two major financial groups in South Korea apply for Korean won stablecoin trademark
Bitstamp, a subsidiary of Robinhood, has been granted a payment institution license in Singapore

Europe

Türkiye bans unauthorized cryptocurrency trading platform PancakeSwap
Deutsche Bank plans to launch a Euro stablecoin regulated by Germany
German DWS Group will launch Euro stablecoin based on MiCA rules

other

Pakistan plans to deploy Bitcoin reserves to DeFi protocol to generate revenue

6. Latest developments in the cryptocurrency industry: stablecoinsETF、Institutional dynamics and ecological progress

The stablecoin market is accelerating its expansion

Russian state-owned giant Rostec plans to launch ruble stablecoin and payment platform on Tron
Deutsche Bank's subsidiary DWS will launch a Euro stablecoin regulated by Germany in accordance with MiCA rules
Circle announces launch of developer service Circle Gateway, supporting USDC cross chain liquidity
South Korean IBK Enterprise Bank and New Korea Financial Holdings apply for Korean won stablecoin trademark
US Treasury Secretary Says Stable Currency Legislation Will Boost Demand for US treasury bond Bonds

ETF competition enters a new stage

Trump Media, a subsidiary of Trump, submits a BTC/ETH hybrid spot ETF application to the SEC
Grayscale insists on advancing its cryptocurrency ETF conversion plan (despite SEC suspension of review)
The US SEC may establish universal listing standards for cryptocurrency ETFs and simplify the approval process
SEC postpones decision on Bitwise Ethereum ETF pledge proposal

Institutional level cryptocurrency investment remains hot

Chinese company Yingxi Group, listed on the US stock market, signed a $1.3 billion agreement to acquire 12000 bitcoins
MicroStrategy has once again increased its holdings of Bitcoin, and may disclose the latest data next week
Design software company Figma reveals holding nearly $70 million in Bitcoin ETF, approved to purchase an additional $30 million
Bit Digital raised $162.9 million, or used to purchase ETH
DeFi Development plans to privately invest $100 million in convertible notes to increase its holdings of SOL
New York Stock Exchange listed company DDC Enterprise raises $528 million, net proceeds used to purchase Bitcoin
SharpLink increases its holdings of 9468 ETH in the "ETH version micro strategy"

other

Musk announces the establishment of the 'American Party' and plans to run for office next year
Vitalik co authored EIP-7983 proposal to set gas cap for Ethereum single transaction
Ripple announces that Mercado Bitcoin will tokenize $200 million RWA on XRPLedger
FTX bankruptcy compensation list exposed, users in 49 countries and regions may not receive compensation
Jupiter DAO core working group disbanded, 4.5 million JUPs will be returned to DAO
Robinhood plans to support 'thousands' of tokenized stocks by the end of the year
Pakistan plans to deploy Bitcoin reserves to DeFi protocol to generate revenue

7. Next week's outlook

JUL 2025 Crypto Calendar

July 7th, NEON unlocked 22.51% of the circulation, valued at approximately $5 million

July 8th: New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for June in the United States

July 9th: The suspension period of US equivalent tariffs ends; the Federal Reserve releases meeting minutes; the US Senate Banking Committee holds market structure hearing

July 10th: Thai Zoo will hold a birthday party for hippopotamus Moo Deng on July 10th

July 11th: IMX unlocked circulation accounts for 1.31%, with a value of approximately 10.1 million US dollars; IO unlocked circulation accounts for 7.87%, with a value of approximately 9.1 million US dollars; MOVE unlocks 1.92% of circulation, valued at approximately $7.7 million

8. Reference

defillama.com
coinmarketcap.com
tradingview.com
cryptoslam.io
token.unlocks.app/
dune.com
itez.com/events
cryptorank.io/

Weekly Crypto Market Decoded_20250706