Polymarket showed an approximately 8.9% decline in trading volume in April.

Kalshi increased volumes by approximately 13% during the same month.

Overall, trading volume on prediction markets in April amounted to $29.8 billion—a 12.4% increase compared to the previous period.

#POLYMARKET #REDUCEDTRADING #KALSHIINCREASEDTRADINGVOLUMES

The CFTC sided with Kalshi.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission supported Kalshi in the jurisdictional dispute regarding prediction markets in the state of Ohio.

The decision affirms the regulator's position on control over such platforms.

#CFTC #KALSHI #DISPUTE

The investigation uncovered key issues in the prediction markets of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Forecast accuracy: On U.S. elections, bets on Polymarket were correct 67% of the time, on Kalshi—78%. For comparison, the older platform PredictIt achieved 93%.

Insider trading: The report notes frequent leaks of confidential information regarding political and governmental events, rendering bets unfair.

Capital concentration: Approximately 70% of all profits are earned by just 0.04% of traders. New users lose more here than at traditional bookmakers.

Gambling bias: Up to 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume and about 40% of Polymarket’s volume are tied to sporting events.

Regulatory loopholes: Federal oversight via the CFTC allows platforms to bypass state taxes and avoid compliance with gambling protection requirements—this has already led to lawsuits from local authorities.

Conclusion: Questions regarding the fairness, profit distribution, and regulation of prediction markets remain unresolved.

#POLYMARKET #KALSHI