1. Summary
This week, Bitcoin ended its three-week downward trend, rising 2.67%, and formed new support at the 108k–112k range. However, short-term panic selling pressure still dominates the market, with 113k and 117k constituting key resistance levels. On-chain data shows a decrease in token turnover activity, with market sentiment tending towards caution; institutional holdings show signs of recovery, but ETF inflows remain weak, not yet sufficient to support a new round of uptrend. If the price falls below 108k, it will exacerbate panic and accelerate the downtrend, while breaking through 117k is a necessary condition for strengthening bullish logic. ETH continues to weaken, with significant outflow pressure from ETFs, but reserve company buying still partially supports demand. Overall, the crypto market remains in a short-term consolidation phase, and confidence recovery depends on improvements in macroeconomic data and a rebound in capital inflows.
2. The non-farm employment data is weak. Reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September
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Several economic indicators in the United States have continued to be weak, with the job market and manufacturing sector performing below expectations, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
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The market has shifted from a debate over "whether to cut interest rates" to "how many times interest rates will be cut within the year", which has simultaneously triggered concerns about economic recession.
9.2 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Fed Governor Nominee Brainard Likely to Take Office Before September Fed Meeting
9.2 - Spot gold hits a new record high
9.2 - In August, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the United States was 53, lower than both the previous value and expectations; the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August in the United States was 48.7, also lower than expectations
9.3 -- U.S. JOLTs positions in July were 1.781 million, lower than the previous value and expectations
9.4 - Federal Reserve Beige Book: Most Districts Report Stagnant Economy
9.4 - In August, the ADP employment report in the United States showed a figure of 54,000, compared to the expected 65,000
9.5 - After seasonal adjustment, the non-farm payroll in the United States increased by 22,000 in August, which was lower than the market expectation of 75,000
9.5 - The unemployment rate in the United States recorded 4.3% in August, in line with market expectations, marking a new high since October 2021
9.5 - Fed's megaphone: Non-farm payroll report almost confirms a rate cut in September, but the debate over subsequent rate cuts is more complicated
9.5 - The pool of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to three, with Trump reiterating his support for Hassett for the position
CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary
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MEETING DATE
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300-325
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325-350
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350-375
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375-400
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400-425
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425-450
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2025/9/17
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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9.48%
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90.52%
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2025/10/29
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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95.00%
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5.00%
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2025/12/10
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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85.64%
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14.36%
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0.00%
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3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance
3.1 The sluggish employment data has reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts, Cautious sentiment emerges amidst the volatility of US stocks
The weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data reinforced market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driving the yields of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds down by 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, which in turn boosted the performance of US stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and 1.14% respectively, while the small-cap Russell 2000 rose by 1.04%, continuing to outperform the broader market. Meanwhile, the VIX index fluctuated narrowly around 15, reflecting investors' continued caution. It is worth noting that US stocks opened higher but closed lower after the non-farm payroll report, indicating that while the weak employment data supported the expectation of a rate cut, it also exacerbated recession concerns. Whether subsequent economic data can validate the precautionary rate cut in September will be key to influencing market sentiment.
Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends
3.2 Bitcoin has stopped falling and started to rebound, Interest rate cuts and recession concerns are intertwined
This week, Bitcoin halted its three-week downward trend, accumulating a 2.67% increase for the week, with its trading range remaining between $107,300 and $113,300, fully aligning with the cost distribution range for short-term holders.
It is noteworthy that during the global sell-off of US Treasury bonds, Bitcoin bucked the trend of the US stock market and rose, reflecting its potential safe-haven attribute in the event of a crisis in centralized finance. After the release of the non-farm payroll data, Bitcoin opened higher and closed lower in sync with the US stock market, highlighting the suppressive effect of economic recession concerns on the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market.
Figure 2: BTC Price Trends
4. Crypto Trend Analysis
4.1 The activity on the BTC chain has declined, Market sentiment is cautious
On-chain data shows that approximately 367,000 BTC were transferred this week, a decrease of 37.2% compared to last week, and the activity of on-chain chip trading has declined:
The reduction of cost chips below 100,000 US dollars amounted to 137,000 BTC, and the profit-making chip reduction decreased by approximately 57,000 BTC this week. There were significant sell-offs near the cost levels of 81k and 98k BTC;
In the 113K–120K range, a total of approximately 141,000 tokens were reduced, reducing the panic selling pressure from loss-making positions, but it remains the largest source of selling pressure in the short-term market.
Meanwhile, 367,000 new chips were added in the $109K–$112K range, with 260,000 added in the $111K range. The previously existing chip shortage has been filled.
Overall, in the fourth week of the downward trend following Bitcoin's new high, on-chain trading volume showed a balance between profit-taking selling pressure and panic loss-selling pressure, with a significant decrease in trading activity and a more cautious market sentiment.
Figure 3: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution
4.2 Institutional purchasing power has rebounded, ETF buying remains weak
Data disclosed by on-chain and institutional sources shows that physical institutions have cumulatively increased their holdings of 16,063 BTC this week, indicating an overall rebound in actual institutional purchasing power. Listed companies contributed 10,738 BTC, accounting for 66.85%, with an increase of approximately 7,000 BTC compared to the previous week, indicating that the "Nasdaq's review of cryptocurrency-holding companies" incident did not affect the purchasing power of reserve companies. Private enterprises increased their holdings by 5,069 BTC this week, reaching a high point in the past five months. However, compared to listed companies, private enterprises lack sustained cash flo, and their purchasing power cannot be maintained for a long time.
Regarding Bitcoin spot ETFs, the net inflow for the entire week was approximately $240 million. The persistently low ETF volume for seven consecutive weeks indicates a cooling demand from traditional financial institutions and a notable contraction in purchasing power.
Overall, there are currently no signs indicating the resumption of purchasing momentum.
Figure 4: BTC Chip Supply Situation
4.3 Institutional shareholding increases have slowed down and ETFs have been sluggish, leading to a weakening of market buying momentum
On-chain and institutional disclosure data show that physical institutions have cumulatively increased their holdings of 3,166 BTC this week, with listed companies contributing 2,971, accounting for a whopping 93.84%. However, the overall increase in holdings decreased by 51.7% compared to the previous week, indicating a significant weakening in institutional buying momentum. In terms of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the net inflow for the entire week was approximately $440 million. Although it broke away from the previous net outflow, the volume remained at a recent low. It is worth noting that in August, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $750 million, marking the first monthly outflow since April. The average monthly net inflow for the previous four months amounted to $4.65 billion, reflecting that ETF funds have entered a distinctly weak phase.
Figure 5: BTC Treasuries
4.4 Short-term cost of chips determines market pressure and key resistance levels
Short-term panic chips are the primary selling pressure in the current market, and the potential behavior of short-term investors can be gauged based on their cost distribution:
The investor costs for the recent one-month and three-month periods are 112.8k and 113.4k respectively, while the current price has fallen below this range, leaving the relevant groups in a floating loss position. If the market rebounds to the cost range, they may choose to sell at the break-even point to unwind their positions, thus making the vicinity of 113k a strong resistance level. Meanwhile, the average cost for investors over the recent six months is approximately 108.0k. Once the price continues to fall below this level, panic sentiment may be further amplified, accelerating the downward pressure on the market.
Figure 6: Realized Price by Short-Term Age Cohorts
4.5 The institutional strengthening of Bitcoin chips, Key support and resistance levels are clear
According to the latest URPD data, the previous chip gap of 108k-112k has been fully filled, making the chip structure more supportive. Specifically:
The cost distribution of the accumulated chips below the current price is 110k, 108k, 104k, and 97k in order. 108k is also the average cost price for investors over the past six months. If it falls below 108k, the decline may accelerate to test 104k, and further probe down to around 97k.
The area near 113k above the price represents the break-even point for short-term holders, constituting the first resistance level; 117k is the maximum chip area, representing the greatest short-term resistance level. Only if the price stabilizes above 117k can the bullish logic be strengthened.
Figure 7: BTC: UTXO Realized Price Distribution
4.6 ETHETF demand shrinks, ETH price experiences continuous correction
Since reaching a new high on August 24th, ETH/BTC has been on a downward trend for two consecutive weeks and has fallen below the daily EMA15 for the first time. With the decline in ETH price, ETHETF demand has shrunk significantly, with a net outflow of $780 million this week, which is consistent with the recent correction trend.
Meanwhile, ETH reserve companies have purchased a total of 268,000 ETH this week. Although this is a decrease of 67,000 ETH compared to the previous week, the demand from listed companies still maintains support.
Figure 8: ETH/BTC Trends
4.7 The market is trading cautiously, No clear risk preference
As of September 7th, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrency assets stood at $3.8376 trillion, marking a weekly increase of 1.25%. The total market trading volume amounted to $969.07 billion, a decrease of 22.63% compared to the previous week, further indicating a cautious trading sentiment in the market. Both Bitcoin and Altcoins saw a simultaneous decrease in trading volume by aproximately 22%. The proportion of Bitcoin trading remained near 37%, with no significant characteristics observed in the trading structure.
Figure 8: Trade Volume
5. Regulatory Trends
America
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The US SEC and CFTC propose to open traditional financial markets for trading "24/7"
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a joint statement stating that registered exchanges in the US are not prohibited from offering trading of certain spot cryptocurrencies.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced an agenda to revise cryptocurrency rules and relax Wall Street regulations, with its chairman emphasizing that the regulation of Bitcoin and crypto asset custody and trading is a key priority.
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Nasdaq will intensify its scrutiny of companies holding cryptocurrencies.
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Prediction market Polymarket has been approved by the CFTC to return to the US market.
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The SEC announced the establishment of a cross-border task force to combat cross-border trading fraud that harms American investors.
Asia
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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that there were a total of 77 applications for stablecoin licenses, and only a few licenses would be granted in the initial stage.
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South Korea will share information on domestic and overseas cryptocurrency asset transactions with tax authorities from multiple countries, and will launch a global cryptocurrency transaction data sharing program next year, requiring local and overseas platforms to separately report transaction records of non-residents and Korean investors.
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Pakistan's central bank withdraws warning on cryptocurrency trading.
Europe
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EU regulators warn that tokenized stocks may mislead retail investors.
Other
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The Ukrainian parliament has passed the first reading of the "Bill on the Legalization and Taxation of Cryptocurrencies," imposing an 18% income tax and a 5% military tax on profits from digital assets.
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The Vice President of Paraguay will convene a meeting to discuss the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
6. Industry Trends
The stablecoin ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with regulation and innovation moving forward in parallel
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WLFI: USD1 has officially launched on Solana and has been integrated with Raydium, BONK.fun, and Kamino
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Hyperliquid is promoting the launch of its self-issued stablecoin USDH, with multiple well-known institutions submitting proposals
Large-scale allocation and business transformation by enterprises and institutions have become mainstream
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CoinShares: $2.48 billion in capital inflows into digital asset investment products last week
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Strategy purchased 4,048 Bitcoin last week at a total price of $449.3 million
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Bitmine purchased 153,075 ETH last week, worth $668 million
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SharpLink increased its holdings by 39,008 Ethereum, bringing its total position to 837,230 Ethereum
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Ether Machine raises $654 million worth of Ethereum through private financing
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State Street Bank discloses a Bitcoin exposure worth $1.8 billion
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Robinhood will be included in the S&P 500 Index; Strategy is not included in the S&P 500 Index
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Hong Kong Fosun tokenizes shares of a medical company with a market capitalization of $328 million
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AlloyX Group Reaches Merger Agreement with Huaying Holdings at a Valuation of $350 Million
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Galaxy Digital will issue tokenized equity on Solana
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Bank of America resumes Bitcoin custody services after years of suspension
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Futian Investment Holding Corporation issues the world's first public blockchain offshore RMB RWA public offering listed digital bond
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iSpecimen, a biological sample procurement company, intends to establish a digital asset library worth $200 million and acquire SOL through OTC trading
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The number of Bitcoin held by listed companies worldwide has officially surpassed 1 million
Other
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The Trump family has accumulated $5 billion in paper wealth since the issuance of WLFI
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Hyperliquid's monthly revenue in August exceeded $100 million, hitting a new monthly record high
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Kraken collaborates with Backed to list xStocks on Ethereum
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Stuttgart Stock Exchange launches pan-European tokenized asset platform
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The difficulty of Bitcoin mining has been increased by 4.89% to 136.04 T, setting a new record high
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The amount of ETH queued to exit the Ethereum PoS network has been decreasing for 9 consecutive days, with approximately $3 billion worth of ETH currently queued for exit
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WLFI has blacklisted the address of Justin Sun
7. Next week's outlook
SEP 2025 Crypto Calendar
September 8: US August New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations
September 9: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the preliminary annual benchmark revision for non-farm employment; SOL Strategies was approved to be listed on NASDAQ on September 9, with the stock code STKE; S's unlocked circulation accounted for 5.02%, worth approximately $45.4 million; MOVE's unlocked circulation accounted for 1.89%, worth approximately $5.9 million
September 10: US August PPI; LINEA TGE
September 11: August CPI data; European Central Bank announces interest rate decision; APT unlocks 2.20% of the circulation, worth approximately $48 million
September 12: Preliminary estimate of one-year inflation rate in the United States for September; Preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September in the United States
8. Reference
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defillama.com
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coinmarketcap.com
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tradingview.com
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cryptoslam.io
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token.unlocks.app/
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dune.com
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itez.com/events
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cryptorank.io/
