#Fed delays 2% inflation target *#SpaceX lowers IPO valuation* - yep, SpaceX trimmed the target after investor feedback. Biggest IPO ever is still coming, but at a lower price.
1. *What changed*
*Original talk in April*: $2T+ valuation floated after confidential S-1 filing
*Current target*: *$1.75T - $1.8T* 6b2d5068
*Deal terms*:
- *$135 per share*, fixed price - no range
- *555.6M shares* to be sold
- *$75B raise* - would be the largest IPO in history ac495068846d
Marketing starts June 4, pricing as early as June 11 9e32
2. *Why they lowered it*
1. *Investor pushback*: After S-1 dropped May 20, the $2T price-to-sales of 107x spooked investors. Even $1.8T = 96x 2025 sales
2. *Losses + cash burn*: $18.67B revenue in 2025, but $4.94B net loss. Q1 2026 another $4.3B loss. Capex doubled to $20.7B
3. *AI uncertainty*: xAI unit lost $6.4B in 2025 on $3.2B revenue. Morningstar calls xAI moat “indeterminate” + “material threat of value destruction” 35f850688b82
3. *Valuation debate*
*SpaceX/Musk view*: $28.5T TAM - $26.5T from AI + space data centers, only $370B from “space solutions”. Betting on orbital data centers + AI infrastructure edae
*Bears view*:
- *Morningstar*: $780B fair value - 48% below IPO target
- *Aswath Damodaran*: ∼$1.3T
- *MarketWatch*: “Leaves virtually zero room for error” 50684055edae
4. *Why it still matters*
1. *Size*: $75B raise would dwarf any IPO ever. Only ∼4.2% of float
2. *Index impact*: Fast-track into Nasdaq 100 + S&P 500 in 6 months. Forces index funds to buy
3. *Retail angle*: Up to 30% allocation to retail investors - Musk’s cult following
4. *Lockup*: Staggered - 20% after Q2 earnings, then 10% if +30%, then 7% tranches 6b2d8b82ac49
*Bottom line*: SpaceX came back down to earth from $2T to $1.75T-$1.8T. Still a “vision price, not cash-flow price”. You’re buying Musk + Starlink profits + xAI/AI data center dreams, not 2025 earnings. 50683078
This IPO will test if public markets have room for trillion-dollar AI+space bets. If it works, expect OpenAI + Anthropic to follow. f2cc
You planning to try for the retail allocation or wait for post-IPO dip?
