[Philippines M7.8 Earthquake Causes Major Shift on Polymarket] In the June 1–7 earthquake market, the probability of exactly two M6.5+ events surged from 1.3% to 99.5%, and the probability of over ten M5.5+ events jumped from 8.1% to 99.1%. The decisive factor was the June 8 M7.8 earthquake in Mindanao, Philippines. Investors must immediately confront the risks of supply chain disruptions and impacts on insurance and reconstruction-related sectors. X: The Philippines M7.8 earthquake has resulted in over 20–30 fatalities, a tsunami warning, and more than 180 aftershocks. Polymarket’s probabilities for earthquake counts shifted above 99% due to this event. There is significant risk to the global electronics supply chain. Companies must immediately reassess their business continuity plans and review their disaster insurance coverage.

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