Frankly, I'm just not that concerned about Strategy's ongoing ability to service dividend obligations. But people will come back and say, "what about the convertible bonds?" So let's take a look at that. To start, we're more than a year away from the next put date (Sep 2027) and more than 2 years away from the next maturity (Sep 2028). So none of the convertible bonds are near-term concerns. The $1.01B Sep 2028 CB has a conversion price of $183.19. Most likely outcome for this bond is that it converts as expected. Even if market price is slightly below conversion price on the Sep 2027 put date, bondholders won't necessarily seek to cash out. The CBs will still have time value. And even if MSTR is still below $183.19 by Sep 2028, the haircut would likely be minimal. Likewise, the conversion prices are low enough that I see the most likely outcome for the 2030A, 2031, and 2032 notes as conversion as expected. The only thing that would change my view on this is if the 4-year cycle actually breaks and we haven't seen a new bitcoin uptrend by 2028. The only two bonds I see potentially of concern are the 2029 notes struck at $672.40 and the 2030B notes struck at $433.43. MSTR has come back from worse odds. The Feb 2027 notes struck at $143.25 in 2021 fell as low as 90% underwater during the 2022 bear market and still recovered to convert (hence why they are not on the below table). That said, the probability is still meaningful that the 2029 notes will be more dilutive than anticipated. But how dilutive exactly and does Strategy still come out ahead on those buys? The 2029 notes were issued at a 55% premium at a time when mNAV was ~3x. So let's call that an effective multiple of 3 * 1.55 = 4.65x. $672.40 / 4.65 gives us a mark to beat of $144.60. Less dilution is of course better, but if Strategy has to sell shares at a price lower than $672.40 to cover the CB, it still has quite a bit of leeway to come out ahead. The 2030B notes are a closer call. If we have another typical 4-year BTC cycle it's likely we see an MSTR price above $433.43. The 2030 maturity would put maturation in the bear year, but Strategy can call the note as early as Mar 2027. In the event MSTR market price does not reach $433.43, Strategy might still, like the 2029 notes, have an opportunity to buy them back at less favorable, but still accretive prices. In sum, my base case is that MSTR's convertible bonds are not a particularly large problem and still wind up being accretive even if MSTR were to take a haircut on the ones with higher conversion prices. A haircut, of course, is not a given. A lot can happen 2 years into what is typically the bull phase for bitcoin.

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