Senior chart analyst Peter Brandt stated that Bitcoin may not have completed its current decline after reaching its targeted February low. He believes the price could still fall further, potentially leading to an even more intense wave of concentrated selling, with the market’s tradable low possibly not appearing until October.
Break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel
Brandt's chart shows that Bitcoin traded within an uptrend channel from late February through May. However, as the price broke below the lower boundary of the channel, the previous upward structure was invalidated, significantly increasing market concerns about a short-term trend reversal.
He stated on social media that Bitcoin has reached its initial downside target, but this does not mean the downtrend is over. According to his analysis, it is still difficult to confirm a true interim bottom at this stage.
Touching the 200-week moving average
After this round of decline, Bitcoin has reached the 200-week moving average. This is the first time since October 2023 that it has returned near this long-term technical level, making it an important observation zone for the market.
Meanwhile, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said the current market resembles a large-scale "handover." Data he provided shows that the average cost basis for Bitcoin investors is approximately $53,000. Historically, bear markets have typically only completed their cleanup after prices fall below this realized price.
- The 200-week moving average is a key long-term technical level.
- The average holding cost is approximately $53,000.
- Brandt believes a tradable low may occur in October.
ETF buying failed to offset selling pressure
Ki Young Ju also noted that he originally believed, during this cycle, with continued institutional capital inflows, this cost range would be difficult to test again. However, the latest data indicates that selling pressure in the market is still ongoing.
He noted that despite increasing ETF inflows and corporate Bitcoin allocations, the price has returned to levels near those seen at the beginning of 2024, suggesting that early holders may have engaged in large-scale spot distributions, offsetting the upward support from new buying pressure.
On the other hand, Peter Schiff, a long-term Bitcoin bear, also noted that Bitcoin’s current price is below the previous macro high formed in April 2021, using this to question the market’s optimistic expectations for significant growth in the coming years.
Overall, the market's focus has shifted from institutional buying to whether selling pressure has been fully released. If the price continues to break below key long-term support, Bitcoin's subsequent volatility could intensify further.