Bitcoin Surpasses $80K for the First Time in Three Months Amid ETF Inflows and Short Squeezes

Author: Schen TechFlow

On Tuesday, May 5, the market fully recovered from Monday’s missile shock.

The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.6%, the Nasdaq gained about 0.9%, and the Dow increased roughly 0.55%, with all three indices rebounding strongly and largely erasing Monday’s losses. The rally was driven by two factors: a de-escalation in geopolitical news and AMD’s post-market release of the cleanest semiconductor earnings report of this earnings season.

The market cooldown stemmed more from Trump’s shift in tone. On Tuesday afternoon, Trump announced a pause on his previously stated plan to "guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz," citing "progress in negotiations." He also vaguely confirmed to reporters at the White House that Iran had "made a call." No details, no timeline—but it was enough for the market: Brent dropped from $114 to $112, WTI fell from $106 to $104, and equities rebounded accordingly.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also said during an interview on Tuesday, in a roundabout but clear manner: “The Strait of Hormuz is more important to the rest of the world than it is to the United States, and that waterway ultimately requires U.S. leadership to secure.” The implication: the U.S. isn’t in a rush, but it won’t leave the issue unresolved indefinitely.

The day's major stock action occurred after closing.

Palantir (PLTR): Reported record Q1 revenue and raised full-year guidance after hours on Monday. The stock fell 6.59% on Tuesday. The reason? The company’s valuation had already priced in a perfect script—anything beyond expectations wasn’t enough. When everyone in the market already believes you’ll win, winning is just “meeting expectations.” This is the new fate of high-valuation tech stocks in 2026.

Shopify (SHOP): Revenue exceeded expectations, but shares fell about 10%. The narrative that AI threatens software companies has become a heavy burden on every SaaS firm—no matter how strong the numbers, investors first demand an explanation of whether AI will disrupt your business before they’re willing to pay up.

Then comes the main event.

AMD after hours: EPS of $1.37, beating expectations of $1.29 by 9.6%. Revenue of $1.025 billion, exceeding expectations of $989 million. Q2 guidance of $1.12 billion significantly surpasses market expectations. Stock rises approximately 15% in after-hours trading.

The most important line on this earnings report is the Q2 guidance, not the Q1 results themselves—demand for AI chips is not slowing down; it’s accelerating. AMD’s MI300X series of AI GPUs are capturing an increasing share of data center procurement orders, especially as NVIDIA’s H100/H200 capacity remains constrained. During the earnings call, CEO Lisa Su explicitly stated that demand for AI computing power from major customers is “still in the earliest stages.” The 15% post-market rally reflects a market-wide acknowledgment: the chip cycle has not yet peaked.

On the same day, the Department of Commerce announced that Microsoft, Google, and Musk’s xAI have agreed to grant the U.S. government access to their top AI models for security testing and research, coordinated by the Center for AI Standards and Innovation under the Department of Commerce. This marks the first concrete step in the U.S. government’s AI regulatory framework under wartime conditions, establishing the first official boundary between military AI and commercial AI in policy documents.

The most absurd news this week: GameStop is planning to acquire eBay for $56 billion.

Among all market news, this one deserves to be highlighted separately.

GameStop (GME) announced plans to acquire the online secondhand marketplace eBay for approximately $56 billion in cash and stock.

The stock fell 10% on Monday. Analysts delivered the most unified message of the week: this is an extremely bad idea. GameStop holds approximately $4.6 billion in cash—far short of the $56 billion offer price by an order of magnitude. The company generates less than $300 million in quarterly revenue, yet it aims to acquire a company with a market capitalization exceeding $20 billion. To complete this deal, it would either need to drastically dilute equity or max out its borrowing capacity—but in today’s financial environment, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 4.4% and credit conditions continuing to tighten, the markets are unlikely to write it a check.

Two analysts on BNN Bloomberg said the same thing in their review: "A combination of Shopify and eBay might make sense, but GameStop buying eBay does not. GameStop should return its money to shareholders."

But the fact that GameStop is still alive and reminding the market of its existence with a $56 billion offer is itself the company’s final value.

On Monday, Brent reached $114.44, the second-highest price during this Iran conflict, following the $126 peak on April 29.

But the market absorbed it within two days. On Tuesday, as Trump paused the "escort ships" plan, Brent fell back from $114 to around $112, and WTI dropped from $106 to $104.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at the Milken Global Conference a statement worth repeating: "This isn't just about price. I think over the next few weeks, we'll start to see real fuel shortages emerge in certain parts of the world—not a price issue, but an issue of 'whether you can get the product at all.'" He further noted that even if the strait eventually reopens, restoring normal exports will take months, requiring mine clearance and the reallocation of hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf.

This statement has reset the market’s time expectations: it’s no longer “oil prices will return to $70 if talks succeed,” but rather “even if talks succeed, it will take months before supply normalizes.” This understanding is becoming a structural support keeping oil prices above $100.

Gold slightly strengthened near $4,625–4,640 on Tuesday, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield modestly declined from Monday’s high of 4.34% to around 4.38%.

On May 5, Bitcoin broke above $80,000, reaching an intraday high of $81,000 before stabilizing near $80,500–80,740—the first time it has returned to this level since the crash in October 2025.

There was no keynote speech this time, no presidential candidate making offers.

Three simultaneous events drove this breakthrough:

First, April saw the highest ETF inflows of the year. According to data from CoinGecko and SoSoValue, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in April reached approximately $244 million, the highest monthly total this year, signaling active rebalancing by institutional buyers following the Q1 low (around $62,000). BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and ARK Invest’s ARKB absorbed the majority of these inflows.

Second, short sellers were squeezed. A large number of short positions had accumulated around $78,000–79,000 for Bitcoin; as the price broke upward, a cascade of forced liquidations occurred, wiping out billions of dollars in short positions within hours and further driving the price higher.

Third, anomalous signals on the battlefield. On Monday, when Iranian missiles struck the UAE oil port and Brent crude surged toward $114, Bitcoin rose instead of falling. This behavior fundamentally shifted analysts’ perception of Bitcoin: it is no longer governed solely by the logic that “risk-on sentiment drives price up,” but is now supported by two concurrent narratives—erosion of dollar credibility and hedging against war-driven inflation. FinanceMagnates cited LMAX Group analysts’ assessment: “This rally is spot-driven, not leverage-driven; funding rates remain neutral, indicating this is not speculative activity but genuine buying pressure.”

The Consensus 2026 conference opened concurrently in Miami, bringing together thousands of industry participants and providing an emotional backdrop. But unlike last week’s Las Vegas event, where there was lots of talk but no movement, prices moved first this time, and the conference simply followed the trend.

Bitcoin is currently facing $82,228, its 200-day moving average and the level it has never successfully closed above since its October peak. A breakout above this level would represent a true technical trend reversal; failing to hold it would see $75,000 reassert itself as the downside support.

May 4 to 5 saw the market experience too much in one go.

U.S. stocks: On Monday, the Dow fell 557 points (following Iran’s missile strike on the UAE); on Tuesday, all major indices rebounded and turned positive. AMD’s after-hours Q1 EPS of $1.37 significantly exceeded expectations, and its Q2 guidance of $1.12 billion blew past estimates, sending shares up 15% after hours—the most important earnings signal of the week so far, indicating the chip cycle has not yet peaked. Palantir and Shopify, despite beating expectations, continued to decline, demonstrating the new market logic for high-valuation stocks. GameStop proposed a $56 billion acquisition of eBay; shares fell 10% on Monday, leaving analysts collectively puzzled.

Oil prices: On Monday, Brent rose to $114.44 (this cycle’s high), then dropped to $112.90 on Tuesday; WTI fell to $104.10. Trump announced a pause in the vessel escort plan, but no substantive progress was made in negotiations. Chevron’s CEO noted that even if the strait reopens, it will take months for supply to normalize.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, intraday touching $81,000—a three-month high. April saw net ETF inflows of $244 million, the strongest of the year, driven by short squeezes and spot buying. This逆势 rally is reshaping market perceptions of BTC’s role. The next key level is $82,228 (200-day moving average); only by surpassing it will Bitcoin truly emerge from the shadows of the past seven months.

The market is only focused on one thing: AMD's 15% after-hours gain—how much of that will be realized at tomorrow's open?

If AMD’s after-hours gains can smoothly translate into official intraday momentum, combined with Trump’s more relaxed stance toward Iran, the Nasdaq could aim for 25,500. However, the air above 25,000 is thinner than before—this is uncharted territory with no historical reference points.

At least today, one thing is certain: Bitcoin climbed from $62,000 to $81,000 in just two months, outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and all those who predicted in February that it would fare worse. Those who cried "Bitcoin should drop" at $126 oil owe the market an explanation.