ChainThink reports that on March 12, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bloomberg has reaffirmed its prediction: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000—a level not seen since mid-2020. Industry observers consider this forecast absurd. However, on Deribit, the largest crypto options trading platform, approximately $800 million in open interest is concentrated in put options at the $20,000 strike price, betting that the price will fall below this level. This is the fourth most popular put bet on the platform, indicating that some traders are preparing for a potential crash. Yet Deribit notes that not all positions are direct bets on a sharp price decline.
Sidrah Fariq, Head of Global Retail Sales at Deribit, said: “Most positions are more like selling put options rather than directional long hedges. Traders frequently sell far out-of-the-money put options because the probability of these levels being touched is very low.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience, holding near $70,000 despite a morning rally in crude oil prices pushing benchmark oil close to $100 and shaking traditional markets. Ethereum, XRP, and SOL also held firm, while the HYPE token rose approximately 10% within 24 hours. Analysts note that excessive leverage is being unwound from the Bitcoin market, paving the way for upward price movement.
Diana Pires, SFOX’s Vice President of Sales, stated in an email: “From a market structure perspective, this consolidation could be constructive, as reducing leveraged positions often lays a more stable foundation for the next move, once clearer macro catalysts emerge.”