The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), recovered over the weekend after recently falling below $60,000.
While Bitcoin and altcoins recovered somewhat over the weekend, the market is noting that this is more of a technical recovery than a trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s Recovery is Real, But Insufficient!
At this point, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the recent recovery in Bitcoin was more of a technical rebound stemming from a delegitimization process, rather than a return to an uptrend driven by new leveraged funds.
At this point, the analyst argues that a true trend reversal would require a simultaneous increase in both the spot price and Open Interest (OI).
While the price of Bitcoin rose over the weekend, the Outright Price (OI) of BTC futures decreased by approximately 6%, falling from $1.65 billion to $1.55 billion.
Furthermore, the funding rate remained positive, ranging from +0.001% to +0.020% over the past 24 hours.
The analyst noted that this combination of rising prices, falling operating interest, and positive funding rates is a common pattern during delegitimization, indicating that existing positions are being closed but new leveraged long positions have not yet significantly entered the market.
“The combination of rising prices, decreasing open positions, and positive funding costs generally indicates that the market is deleveraging. This means that while existing positions are being liquidated, not enough new leveraged long positions have yet been created.”
The sustained decline in open positions indicates that demand is not being supported by the expansion of new positions.
At this point, the recent recovery is real, but it’s insufficient in terms of leverage.”
Seeking Exchange Entries in Bitcoin!
While it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin’s recovery will continue, another analyst argued that increased inflows from exchanges by long-term BTC holders signal selling pressure.
Shayan, a CryptoQuant analyst, noted a significant increase in Bitcoin deposits on exchanges by medium- to long-term investors.
The analyst noted that such surges in exchange inflows have historically coincided with prolonged periods of decline in Bitcoin’s price, suggesting that continued inflows could increase selling pressure and make a sustainable short-term recovery in Bitcoin more difficult. However, he added that a one-off surge in inflows does not immediately mean further declines.
“While there is a short-term recovery, considering the market structure and on-chain trends together, there are many challenges to overcome before an upward reversal can be confirmed.”
Gold Drop Could Be a Bullish Signal for Bitcoin!
Finally, analyst James Van Straten offered a different perspective. Comparing gold and Bitcoin, the analyst stated that a drop in the price of gold below the 200-day moving average is considered a positive signal for BTC.
According to the analyst, the price of gold has fallen below its 200-day moving average, indicating a weakening of the long-term uptrend, which could be a positive sign for BTC.
Gold has fallen more than 20% from its January peak of $5,600 per ounce, dropping below $4,300, and, according to analysts, has entered a bear market.
In contrast, the BTC/Gold ratio, which measures the number of gold ounces needed to buy one Bitcoin, rose 3% in the last 24 hours to 14.72.
In conclusion, according to the analyst, the sustained weakness in gold could lead to a relative strengthening for BTC.
*This is not investment advice.
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