BlockBeats news, on June 4, Bitcoin fell continuously over the past 24 hours to a low of $61,383, with a more significant decline than altcoins, causing Bitcoin’s market share to decrease. Amid panic sentiment, the topic of Strategy selling a small amount of Bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends has once again become a market focus, as investors once again question whether its high-leverage financing cycle could trigger a systemic collapse in the crypto market.
IOSG believes that Strategy’s 11.5% high-yield financing mechanism, built through STRC, is essentially a "short put option"—trading the risk of BTC price declines eroding asset buffers for buy-side demand. It converts fixed-income demand into buying pressure for Bitcoin, efficiently transforming STRC-raised funds into BTC accumulation. However, the true vulnerability is not BTC’s price itself, but mNAV. If MSTR’s mNAV falls below 1.0x for more than four consecutive weeks, the flywheel will enter a downward spiral into passive mode within three months. Saylor will face a trilemma: continue raising dividends to increase leverage, suspend dividends, or be forced to sell a small amount of BTC to fund payouts. The current financing flywheel is already operating on "one leg"; if this scenario is triggered, STRC risks will become significantly exposed.
BitMEX Research notes that STRC carries significantly higher risk than short-duration U.S. Treasuries, and when the music stops, investors may feel somewhat betrayed. They assess that, amid persistent mNAV below par, despite Saylor’s repeated assertions of “never selling,” the most likely outcome is a direct abandonment of STRC’s stability narrative, shifting the burden to holders rather than opting to sell. This implies that the current mechanism’s fragility far exceeds its surface appearance, and governance and seniority risks have been underestimated.
NYDIG views STRC as similar to selling a put option on Bitcoin asset coverage—earning yield by assuming the downside risk of BTC price declines eroding the asset buffer. It is not merely a payment risk, but rather a concentrated single-name Bitcoin credit risk that must be evaluated from the perspectives of governance and seniority. Over the long term, if BTC remains flat or declines, continuously raising dividends may temporarily attract buyers, but it will gradually transform the instrument from a quasi-monetary asset into a distressed product, fully exposing its structural fragility.
Saylor himself and his supporters, such as Bitwise advisor Jeff Park, have strongly endorsed STRC, positioning it as a "Bitcoin-backed money market fund" and "short-duration, high-yield credit," using 3x leverage to efficiently convert capital into BTC buying pressure, serving as the core engine driving Bitcoin’s price. Saylor has actively promoted this instrument, even proposing to shift monthly distributions to biweekly to optimize liquidity. Backed by Wall Street institutions—including BlackRock’s ETF holdings—STRC remains the "savior" for now. However, if BTC enters a sideways or downward trend, the cost of its 11.5% yield could transform it from a financing powerhouse into a destroyer, putting Saylor’s smart leverage strategy to its ultimate test.