Based on Jinse, Bitcoin's price dynamics have shifted from on-chain signals to off-chain capital and leverage since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Five key indicators are shaping the current bull-bear cycle: ETF inflows as a core driver, perpetual financing and futures basis reflecting leverage cycles, stablecoin liquidity as a market foundation, holder structure evolution affecting market resilience, and macro liquidity impacting capital costs through ETFs. ETF inflows in Q1 2024 pushed Bitcoin to record highs, while a $370 million net redemption in November 2025 triggered a sharp price drop. Current annualized funding rates of 8%-12% suggest a stable leverage environment, but negative financing often signals market troughs. Stablecoin supply growth of 59% in 2024 and a $27.6 trillion transfer volume highlight their role in market liquidity. Long-term holder (LTH) behavior and short-term capital shifts also influence price stability. The interplay of these five signals determines Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Five Key Signals Determine Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Cycle Amid ETF Influence
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