Weekly Review: Rebound Stalls as Sentiment Repairs, Not Reverses
As of November 30th, the cryptocurrency market experienced a classic "low-volume rebound." While the total market capitalization recovered 4.46% week-over-week to $3.11 trillion, trading volume simultaneously shrank drastically by 33.43%. This significant price-volume divergence indicates that the week's upswing was driven by sentiment repair rather than substantial fund inflow or genuine buying support.
Dominated by macroeconomic sentiment, Bitcoin's (BTC) price movement maintained a strong correlation (30-day coefficient at 0.71) with Nasdaq futures, briefly pushing BTC toward the $93,000 resistance. Although BTC closed the week up 4.06%, ending four consecutive weeks of losses, the optimism faded quickly. The sharp correction starting Friday has already wiped out most of the gains, leaving market confidence in the fear zone and necessitating further repair.
Institutional Demand Weakness: ETF Inflows Overshadowed by Outflows
The persistent weakness in institutional demand, a key pillar of this cycle, is the primary source of the market's fragility.
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ETF Status: Although BTC ETFs ended four straight weeks of net outflows, they recorded a minimal net inflow of just $70 million for the week.
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Fund Comparison: This figure is dwarfed by the cumulative $3.48 billion in net outflows recorded for the month, clearly signaling that institutional demand remains significantly sluggish.
Unless the core buying power from ETFs is restored, the crypto market will continue to face the dual challenges of insufficient demand and lack of confidence.
On-Chain and Derivatives: Participants Turn Cautious, Leverage Reduced
Market participants are showing increased caution, with derivatives and on-chain data pointing to a fragile, neutral equilibrium:
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Derivatives Deleveraging: Futures Open Interest (OI) continues to decline, systematically reducing accumulated leverage and lowering the risk of liquidation-driven volatility. Perpetual contract funding rates have reverted to neutral—and occasionally turned negative—indicating the market has exited the excessive speculative phase.
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Options Market Structure: While the risk of an immediate crash has subsided, confidence in a sustained recovery is absent. Call options are predominantly being sold into price strength, suggesting a preference for selling into rallies rather than betting on a breakout.
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On-Chain Data: Loss-taking cohorts heavily outweigh profit-taking ones, especially for BTC acquired below the $80k cost basis, reflecting poor market confidence. Major token movement is concentrated around key price levels, suggesting a predominantly short-term trading focus.
Key Levels: $96,500 Marks the Stability Threshold
The market is poised at a delicate balance point:
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Solid Support: The $83,500 - $84,000 range has formed a dense cluster of tokens, establishing solid support.
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Stability Signal: For the market to genuinely stabilize and find direction, the price must regain the level above $96,500.
Week Ahead Outlook (Dec 2 - Dec 8): Macro Data and Tech Upgrades
In the absence of strong short interest or robust long momentum, the crypto market is likely to maintain its fragile equilibrium in the short term. Market focus will shift decisively towards macroeconomic data releases and critical industry events.
Macro Drivers and Potential Volatility
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December 5th: US September PCE Data Release. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. An unexpected reading could instantly disrupt the current market balance, serving as the decisive catalyst for short-term price action. Investors should brace for heightened volatility around this release.
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Technical View: The market continues to consolidate above the strong $83,500–$84,000 support. While the deleveraging process reduces crash risk, the lack of significant capital inflow means momentum for a sustained rally remains weak.
Key Industry Events
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December 2nd: CME Group and CF Benchmarks are set to launch two new Bitcoin Volatility Indexes, providing new institutional risk management tools.
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December 3rd-4th: The 2025 Dubai Blockchain Week will take place.
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Token Unlocks: Watch for token unlocks this week, including SUI, SANTOS, WAL (Dec 1st), and ENA (Dec 2nd), which could exert short-term selling pressure on the respective assets.
Conclusion: Waiting for Directional Clarity
Overall, the market is expected to remain in a consolidating, low-volume trading range ahead of the crucial macro data release. Any sustainable rally requires both a restoration of BTC ETF net inflows and positive signals from the PCE data. With liquidity concentrating in top assets (BTC trading dominance hitting a two-year high of 46.63%), the altcoin sector will likely continue to suffer from liquidity depletion. Caution is advised, as the market awaits clearer signals to commit to a new direction.