Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. Strategist refutes U.S. stock market bubble theory: “FEMO” will help the S&P 500 break 10,000
Senior Market Strategist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research has dismissed concerns that U.S. equities are in a bubble, noting that the current rally is driven by “fabulous earnings momentum,” not speculative hype. He added that if the U.S. economy avoids a recession over the next few years, the S&P 500’s current forward P/E ratio of 20 to 22 appears reasonable. He coined the term “FEMO” to distinguish today’s market surge from “FOMO” (fear of missing out), pointing out that the latter is often based on hope and speculation rather than fundamentals. Yardeni acknowledged that the recent sharp rallies in certain semiconductor stocks have given the market a “melt-up” feel. He expects that, under a bullish scenario for the “roaring 2020s,” the S&P 500 could reach the 10,000 mark by the end of this decade (before 2030), representing a 33% gain. Yardeni noted that since the start of this year, he has seen only one notable market sell-off—in March—and believes another similar pullback is unlikely before year-end. His FEMO thesis also supports his target of 8,250 for the S&P 500 by 2026, the highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
2. Capital Economics: Concerns about imminent significant policy tightening by central banks around the world appear to be overblown.
Economists at Capital Economics noted in a research report that concerns over the Iran conflict triggering a sustained rebound in inflation and initiating a global tightening cycle appear to be overblown. They stated that although inflation in advanced economies is expected to rise to 3%–4%, the risk of inflation triggering persistent "second-round effects" appears lower than during 2022–2023, given softer labor markets, reduced fiscal support, and already high starting interest rates. Many policymakers tend to disregard temporary inflationary pressures driven by energy factors. They argue that stagflation would only emerge under an extreme scenario involving a prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and severe damage to critical infrastructure. The economists added that, in such a case, elevated energy prices and commodity shortages could force central banks to raise rates again until economic growth slows sufficiently to prompt a policy shift, potentially lasting until 2027.
3. ANZ: Expectations of increased AI demand boost copper prices, while Middle East tensions and tariff concerns weigh on overall base metals performance.
Copper prices rose during Asian morning trading, with three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) advancing 0.2% to $13,554 per tonne. ANZ Research analysts noted in a report that market sentiment toward demand prospects has turned more optimistic, supported by the global artificial intelligence boom, benefiting copper prices. In particular, rising copper usage in Australia’s power infrastructure—including transmission lines and electrical equipment—has further strengthened the bullish outlook for copper. However, overall, base metals showed mixed movements, as signs of difficult peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran weighed on market sentiment, suggesting the Middle East conflict may not end soon. ANZ also pointed out that increased U.S. copper imports ahead of potential tariff measures have raised concerns about tightening global supply.
Domestic
CITIC Securities: "Adapting to AI" is a challenge faced by market participants and will be the main theme and opportunity in the next phase.
At CITIC Securities’ 2026 Capital Markets Forum held today, Chief A-Share Strategist Qiu Xiang stated that in the AI era, broader public participation in capital markets is an inevitable trend, but the costs of missing opportunities and making mistakes are rising—implying that both aggressive and conservative capital will coexist and grow simultaneously, with a barbell structure persisting long-term. The allocation strategy for the second half of the year is a new “AI + Energy & Chemicals” barbell structure: Agentic AI drives demand, while supply disruptions in the Middle East constrain supply—these are the two most critical areas generating unexpected supply-demand gaps and profit realization this year. “Adapting to AI” represents the broader challenge facing economic and market participants, and will gradually become the dominant theme and key opportunity in the next phase, with the core of adaptation lying in continuously reinforcing and expanding inherent comparative advantages.
2. CITIC Securities: Mining disruptions resurface; continue to recommend opportunities in the aluminum sector.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the Guinean government plans to finalize its bauxite regulation policy in June, increasing the risk of supply constraints for bauxite, which may help stabilize bauxite and alumina prices and benefit aluminum companies with high self-sufficiency in bauxite and alumina. Domestic aluminum inventory reduction is accelerating, while overseas supply shortages persist; we continue to recommend positioning in the aluminum sector at current low levels. We are particularly optimistic about investment themes centered on strong resources, high growth, and high dividend yields.
3. CITIC Construction Investment: Hidden inventories become visible, leading to a decline in lithium prices; strong restocking by downstream sectors may support a rebound.
China Construction Bank Research Report indicates that as new market supply is largely absorbed by demand, previously hidden old inventory is gradually becoming visible. SMM has adjusted its inventory structure by increasing samples from traders and cell manufacturers, making hidden trader inventories and cell manufacturer customer-supplied reserves more apparent. The latest weekly inventory for the new sample stands at 1.37 million tons, down 0.8% week-over-week, while the old sample’s weekly inventory is at 1.01 million tons, down 1.2% week-over-week. As prices continued to decline during the week, buying intent strengthened, and restocking motivation gradually rose, leading to active purchasing. Lithium carbonate production slightly decreased this week, primarily due to maintenance on spodumene production lines; output is expected to remain lower in May and June due to tight raw material supply. Downstream energy storage production remains high, while rebounding demand in the power sector provides bottom support, causing lithium prices to enter a short-term consolidation phase.
4. Huatai Securities: AI chain and energy continue to drive growth in industrial enterprise profits
According to a research report from Huatai Securities, industrial enterprise profits increased by 24.7% in April, up from 15.8% in March, with improved price indicators driving further profit recovery. Inflation levels have shown greater elasticity in their rebound, but profit margins for mid- and downstream enterprises outside the AI chain have weakened slightly, indicating intensifying cost pressures. The further rise in oil prices in April continued to support profit growth in oil processing and chemical products. Additionally, fueled by strong global demand for AI investments, the electronic and computer industry has remained the leading driver of profit and revenue growth. However, profit growth among other mid- and downstream sectors remains relatively weak. Industrial enterprise profit growth rose from 15.8% in March to 24.7% in April, supported by both volume and price factors; revenue growth increased from 4.5% in March to 5.8% in April, and the adjusted profit margin rose from 5.7% in March to 5.8%. Industry differentiation has become more pronounced: upstream industries contributed 5.9 percentage points to overall profit growth, up 2.1 percentage points from 3.8 percentage points in March. Among mid- and downstream sectors, computer and communications contributed 6.8 percentage points, non-ferrous metal smelting contributed 4.7 percentage points, and chemical products contributed 6.1 percentage points—collectively accounting for approximately 17.5 percentage points. In contrast, profit growth remains weak in other sectors, particularly downstream manufacturing tied to domestic demand, such as cement products, food and beverages, recreational goods, and furniture.
5. Guojin Securities: Coal and Power Assets Unlock Valuation Potential Through Safety Value
According to a research report from Guojin Securities, the price of coal with a Q5500 calorific value remains at CNY 830 per ton, up by CNY 217 year-over-year. Safety inspections in Shanxi may further push short-term coal prices higher, while electricity prices in some provinces are expected to rise, signaling potential bottoming out. Q1 thermal power performance demonstrated resilience, with market-based trading and capacity tariffs offsetting declines in long-term contract prices. The company anticipates sequential improvement in earnings after the Q2 bottom is confirmed, supported by improved hydrological conditions during the flood season driving both volume and price increases, highlighting attractive dividend yields. The integration of computing and power is expanding from isolated cases to regional scales; under the logic of energy security, manufacturing repatriation is boosting demand, unlocking valuation potential for coal and power assets. Leading companies have solid dividend foundations and offer balanced risk-reward profiles, making them well-positioned for investment now.
6. Changjiang Securities: The essence of the financial industry is long-termism; "no great institution has ever been built by chasing trends."
On May 28, at Changjiang Securities’ 2026 Mid-Year Strategy Meeting, Liu Yuanrui, Deputy Party Secretary and President of Changjiang Securities, shared his profound insights into the essence of the financial industry: “Like all industries, finance is fundamentally about long-termism.” Liu elaborated on this perspective from three dimensions: banks operate on credit, which requires years of steady, consistent performance to build; asset management operates on trust, earned through sustained performance across market cycles; and investment research operates on judgment, with reputation forged through one rigorous study after another. He plainly stated, “No great financial institution has ever been built by chasing trends.” “Truly valuable things are worth nurturing over time.” Liu quoted Warren Buffett: “Think about what you want your obituary to say, and then live a life worthy of it,” emphasizing that long-termism is not merely an investment approach, but a life choice.
7. CICC: Major cities may gradually reach a turning point for housing price stabilization over the next two years.
CICC's research report suggests that major cities may gradually reach a turning point in housing price stabilization over the next two years. CICC has raised its outlook for second-hand home sales area in 2026, while maintaining its previous projections for new home sales and investment. Based on the inventory turnover period of second-hand homes and overall housing supply-demand scores, CICC has expanded its analysis to more cities, estimating that several cities may reach a turning point in month-over-month housing price stabilization by 2026, with this trend potentially expanding to major cities with better inventory conditions by 2027.
8. CICC Wealth Futures: The sideways, weak trend in gold remains unchanged.
Gold has fluctuated and declined, in line with expectations. We believe the market has underestimated the risk that oil prices may continue to rise due to the ongoing lack of a formal agreement on the Iran-U.S. issue. With crude oil absorbing strategic reserves and consumers gradually accepting higher prices, further upward movement in oil remains possible—this is not favorable for U.S. inflation. Gold’s weak, range-bound trend remains unchanged.