ChainCatcher reports that CryptoQuant has released a new report on social media stating that Bitcoin has fallen to a new bear market low of $59,000, currently just 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Historically, this valuation level has typically coincided with bear market bottoms. In previous bear markets, prices usually bottomed near or slightly below the realized price, suggesting that, from a purely valuation standpoint, Bitcoin may be approaching a structural bottom. However, demand conditions remain extremely weak. Last week, total Bitcoin demand (speculative futures and explicit spot) plunged to -652,000 BTC—the largest decline since January 2022. Long-term spot demand (1-year explicit demand growth) has also turned negative, falling below its trend line to the most severe level since February 2024. ETF buying volume is contracting at the fastest pace since its launch in January 2024, with 30-day ETF demand growth now in unprecedented negative territory. This indicates that U.S. institutional demand—the primary structural driver of this cycle—not only has stalled but has reversed into net selling at an unusually rapid historical pace. Bitcoin holders’ realized losses have not yet reached levels indicative of capitulation selling. Over the past 30 days, sellers realized losses of 187,000 BTC; in comparison, when Bitcoin first touched $60,000 during this bear market in February 2026, realized losses stood at 400,000 BTC, and at the cycle low following the FTX collapse in November 2022, they reached 1.2 million BTC. The absence of a capitulation peak suggests that there are still sellers willing to liquidate in the market. While the price level may be nearing a bottom, a constructive rebound in demand is still required to transition into a bull market—a condition not yet evident in the data. Until total demand stabilizes, ETF inflows resume, and realized losses reach a capitulation peak, the current price level should be interpreted as a potential valuation bottom rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.
Bitcoin Near Structural Bottom, But Market Selling Pressure Remains
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Summary
Bitcoin news reports that the asset has fallen to a bear market low of $59,000, just 9% above its realized price of $53,600, according to CryptoQuant. Bitcoin analysis shows total demand has dropped to -652,000 BTC, the largest decline since January 2022. Long-term spot demand is also negative, reaching its lowest level since February 2024. ETF demand is rapidly contracting, with 30-day growth in negative territory. Institutional selling has accelerated. Realized losses remain below previous capitulation peaks, indicating sellers are still active. A rebound in demand is needed for a shift to a bull market.
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